Nifty faces 24,600 hurdle; Sensex eyes 81,500 in August, say tech analysts

Technical analysts flag that Nifty ranged between 23,600-24,600 after the initial rally in FY27; however, select momentum indicators show improvement for the BSE, NSE benchmark indices on charts.

The BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty seem poised to end July on a positive note, with gains of around 2 per cent apiece, as of July 30 (Thursday). In the process, both the BSE and the NSE benchmark indices will be registering back-to-back month of gains. Despite the rally, analysts reckon that the Sensex and Nifty remain trapped in a range.  Here's a technical outlook on the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty for the month of August, and year ahead by technical analysts at Angel One and Bonanza.  ALSO READ | Sensex, Nifty gain 2% in July led by IT; 50% of BSE 500 stocks underperform 

Nifty

Last Close: 24,317  Support range: 23,600-23,550  Resistance range: 24,550-24,600  Hitesh Rathi, Technical Analyst (Equity & Derivatives) at Angel One highlights that despite a sharp recovery in FY27, the Nifty remained confined within a well-defined trading range. The analyst says that 24,600 acted as the upper boundary and 23,600 provided support on the downside.  "The formation of a series of Bearish Poles from the upper resistance zone and Bullish Low Poles from the lower support band clearly reflects the prevailing range-bound structure, with sellers consistently capping rallies while strong demand at lower levels continues to cushion intermediate declines," explain Rathi.  The analyst notes that the upper resistance is further reinforced by the presence of a long-term objective 45-degree trendline, making the 24,550–24,600 zone a formidable hurdle. 

(Image source: Angel One)

 

    "The on-going consolidation is also highlighted by the formation of a 4-Column Triangle on the Daily 1% × 3 Point & Figure chart, reaffirming the absence of a decisive directional breakout," explains Rathi.  On the other hand, the successful defense of the upward-sloping trendline in the 23,600–23,550 band, which also coincides with the presence of a bullish gap support, reflects the emergence of strong buying interest at lower levels, says Rathi.  This continues to provide stability to the broader market structure and keeps the longer-term outlook neutral to mildly constructive, he adds.  ALSO READ | Sensex, Nifty in August: Will bulls repeat history? 11-yr data decoded  Going forward, Rathi believes that a decisive breakout above the 24,600-mark would signal an intermediate shift in control towards buyers, while a subsequent move above 24,850 would confirm the resumption of the primary uptrend and potentially pave the way for a retest of the all-time highs.  From trading levels perspective, the analyst flags 23,600 as a sacrosanct support for the Nifty.  "A breakdown below this level is likely to trigger an initial decline towards the 23,100 mark, where a major swing support is positioned. Any decisive breach of this support cluster would significantly weaken the technical structure and could pave the way for a deeper correction towards the sub-22,500 region," cautions Rathi.

  BSE Sensex

Last close: 77,928  Support range: 77,000-76,000  Virat Jagad, Sr. Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza has a cautiously optimistic view on the Sensex. 

(Image source: Bonanza)

  "The Sensex weekly chart suggests that the correction phase has largely matured, with the index respecting its long-term rising trendline and reclaiming the 76-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Momentum indicators are improving, although they have not yet entered a strong bullish zone," says Jagad.  The analyst believes that as long as the support zone of 76,000-77,000 remains intact, the broader bias favours a gradual move towards 81,500 in the near-term.  By the year-end, Jagad expects the Sensex to scale 82,000-84,000 levels. Adding that, a breakout above 86,000 would confirm a fresh long-term uptrend and open the possibility of 88,000+ levels over the coming months.  View and outlook shared belong to the respective brokerages/analysts and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers' discretion is advised.