Sensex, Nifty in August: Will bulls repeat history? 11-yr data decoded

In the last 11 years, the Sensex has ended August higher 6 times, with an average gain of 3.42 per cent, and lower 5 times, with an average decline of 2.71 per cent.

Sensex, Nifty in August: Indian equity markets are on the verge of ending July on a positive note. As of July 30, the Sensex index has gained 1,450 points, or 1.89 per cent, while the Nifty 50 has advanced 453 points, or 1.90 per cent.

 

As August begins, investors remain cautiously optimistic, although geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty are expected to keep markets volatile. 

 

Data showed that the Sensex ended August in positive territory in 6 out of the last 11 years, delivering an average gain of 3.42 per cent, while it has closed in the red on 5 occasions, with an average decline of 2.71 per cent. Notably, in 2 of the last 3 years (2023 and 2025), the Sensex ended August with losses of 2.55 per cent and 1.69 per cent, respectively.

 

 

Nifty's performance has largely mirrored that of the Sensex. In the last 11 years, the index has ended August higher in 6 years, posting an average gain of 3.46 per cent, while it has recorded negative returns in 5 years, with an average loss of 2.58 per cent. Similar to the Sensex, Nifty ended August in the red in 2023 and 2025, declining by 2.53 per cent and 1.38 per cent, respectively.

 

Devarsh Vakil, head of research, HDFC Securities, said that Indian markets are likely to stay buoyant as geopolitical worries recede and India’s weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets index rises amid weakness in peers like Korea and Taiwan. 

 

"Earnings meet expectations, valuations are healthier after almost two years of time–price consolidation, and foreign flows should favour large caps," he said.

 

Key events to watch out for in August 

 

1. Earnings: Sudeep Shah, head of technical and derivatives research at SBI Securities, said that investors will closely track the ongoing corporate earnings season to gauge the sustainability of earnings growth and management outlooks.

 

2. Monsoon: The progress and distribution of the southwest monsoon, along with reservoir levels during the critical sowing season, will remain crucial for assessing rural demand, agricultural output and inflation trends.

 

3. RBI MPC outcome: Sudeep said that the outcome and commentary from the RBI MPC meeting in the first week of August will provide signals on the domestic growth-inflation balance. The outcome could influence liquidity and risk appetite.

 

4. Oil, geopolitical developments, MSCI review: Geopolitical developments and their impact on trade flows and energy prices will also impact investor sentiment. Additionally, the MSCI review-related stock changes, trajectory of crude oil prices, bond yields, the US Dollar Index and inflation expectations will be key determinants of market sentiment.

 

"Though global geopolitical headwinds remain a concern, any news on the West Asia war ceasefire or any further decline in crude oil prices would support the Indian equity markets in August," he said.

 

All eyes on FMCG, Auto stocks

 

In terms of which sector performs relatively well in August, Sudeep said that historically, the FMCG and Auto have demonstrated favourable seasonality in August. 

 

The FMCG index has ended August in positive territory in 13 out of the last 20 years, delivering an average return of 2.84 per cent. Since the post-COVID recovery period, the sector has witnessed only one negative August performance, falling 2.93 per cent in 2023.

 

Sudeep said that the Auto sector has been one of the strongest performers as the index has ended in the green in 12 out of the last 20 years, generating an average gain of 5.30 per cent.

 

"Autos should see fresh buying interest if monsoon improves and on pre-festive channel filling," he said.  ===================================================== 

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