Nomura bets on Waaree, Premier as Indian solar capacity to grow 3x by 2030

To meet the robust demand, Nomura analysts project India will add ~309GW of installed capacity between FY25-30F, with renewables (RE) accounting for the bulk of the expansion.

Nomura on India solar sector: Nomura has kicked off coverage on India’s solar sector with an upbeat note, calling it “poised for exemplary growth.” The brokerage has initiated coverage on Waaree Energies Limited with a ‘Buy’ rating and target price of ₹3,710, and on Premier Energies Limited with a ‘Neutral’ rating and target price of ₹1,100.

 

The Japanese brokerage firm sees India’s solar photovoltaic (PV) equipment industry riding on a powerful demand surge. “India’s solar PV equipment demand is set to rise 1.4x over FY25-28F, anchored by a 23 per cent CAGR in installed solar energy capacity,” Nomura said.

 

Demand tailwinds

 

India’s power consumption is entering a structural uptrend. “Driven by industrial activity and the emergence of power-intensive sectors such as data centres, green hydrogen and electric vehicles, we expect India’s power demand to clock a CAGR of 6 per cent through FY30F,” the brokerage highlighted.

 

To meet this robust demand, Nomura analysts project India will add ~309GW of installed capacity between FY25-30F, with renewables (RE) accounting for the bulk of the expansion. This dovetails with the government’s target of 500GW in installed RE capacity by 2030F.

 

Within RE, solar energy is expected to lead the transition. “With strong policy support and the lowest tariffs among renewable segments, solar will be at the forefront,” Nomura noted. It estimates India’s installed solar energy capacity will nearly triple to 293GW in FY30F from 106GW in FY25F. Therefore, solar module demand is set to climb to 58GW in FY28F, 1.4 times the 42GW demand of FY25.

Supply push and policy cushion

 

On the supply side, India’s solar manufacturing capacity has expanded rapidly, but with imbalances. As of June 2025, module capacity stood at 94GW, while cell capacity lagged at just 26GW. “Due to limited scale and lack of backward integration, Indian players remain less cost competitive versus imports,” Nomura analysts said.

 

That gap is being bridged through government support. “Favourable supply-side policies such as the Approved List of Module Manufacturers (ALMM), Basic Customs Duty (BCD), Domestic Content Requirement (DCR), and the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme incentivise backward integration while shielding domestic demand from imports,” the report said.

Oversupply risks, but integration matters

 

The industry is now entering a phase of aggressive expansion. Nomura expects domestic module capacity additions of 100-110GW and cell capacity additions of 70-80GW over the next 2-3 years. While this could lead to module oversupply and pressure on realisations, integrated players stand to benefit.

 

“With ALMM-II making the use of approved domestic cells mandatory, cell availability becomes the key bottleneck. Backward-integrated players with cell and wafer capacity will be better placed, enjoying improved unit economics and higher operational efficiency,” Nomura said.

 

However, the brokerage cautioned that “technology obsolescence is a key risk,” as newer technologies such as Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact (TopCon) and Heterojunction Technology (HJT) are expected to gain market share.

 

Export window amid global energy transition

 

Nomura also sees sizable opportunities beyond India. “Driven by their energy transition targets, we expect solar additions in the US and EU to push module demand to 85GW and 114GW, respectively, by CY27F – well above local supply,” the brokerage said.

 

This gap creates an opening for Indian manufacturers. While competition from Chinese and Southeast Asian suppliers remains intense, analysts believe, geopolitical factors work in India’s favour. “Anti-China policies in the US limit competitive threats. Although reciprocal tariffs will raise costs for Indian exports, limited alternative suppliers and higher duties on peers allow Indian firms to partly pass on incremental costs,” Nomura explained.

 

Some Indian players are also setting up plants in the US to sidestep trade uncertainties. This, Nomura believes, will further strengthen their export positioning.

 

“India’s solar story is set to be defined by a demand upcycle, supportive policies, and global opportunities,” Nomura said. While oversupply poses near-term risks, backward-integrated players with technology readiness are expected to outperform.