Turbocharging India: Assuming global economic leadership

Amid uncertainty brought by the US tariff policy to trade and investments in India, a domestic narrative has emerged for India to seize the moment as an opportunity—and shift the levers of reforms and policy to ‘turbocharge itself’ onto a higher growth trajectory. Higher tariffs could render many Indian products uncompetitive in US markets and bring unfavourable repercussions to the domestic economy—yet paradoxically, if handled in mission mode, this moment could also catalyse greater investments into India, particularly in sectors where India has existing strengths and an edge to emerge as a global leader by 2030.

 

Digital services 

To begin with, India has a major growth opportunity in digital services, with the potential to double exports to $500 billion by 2030. In 2023, India delivered over $250 billion in digital services exports, ranking among the top four nations globally, and growing at 17 per cent year-on-year—far outpacing China’s 4 per cent. Key strategies to be a global leader in the sector must include: 

 

(i) Indian IT companies moving up the value chain to deliver innovative products

  (ii) Private sector leveraging digital trade chapters under FTAs

  (iii) Establishing clear policy for cross-border data transfer

  (iv) Building trust through standardised contracts and trusted-partner lists

 

Low-hanging fruits include: 

(a) Expansion of Unified Payments Interface (UPI) to global B2B networks

  (b) Establishing high-quality power and fibre corridors for data centre exports

  (c) Boosting SaaS (Software as a Service) exports to $40–50 billion by 2030 through regulations, investment, and branding

 

At the same time, global tech outsourcing is a related area where India’s IT giants must build on the country's track record and develop niche area expertise in AI, machine learning, data engineering and R&D outsourcing—moving up the value chain.

 

Pharma and biotech 

Pharma and biotech is another sector where India has demonstrated its standing through cost-effective generics and vaccines being delivered at scale across the world. Developing a home-grown vaccine during Covid strengthened India’s reputation as the “pharmacy of the world.” The Indian pharma market is poised to reach $130 billion by 2030 from the present $55 billion—outperforming China in areas such as cost-effectiveness, generic drug production, vaccine manufacturing, and having the largest number of FDA-approved units outside the US.

 

A rapidly emerging area in Indian pharma is Contract Research and Manufacturing Services (CRAMS), where India offers reliable options to foreign pharma companies seeking innovative drug development and manufacturing services. With such clear strengths, this sector is poised for exponential growth—helping India dominate global markets by 2030.

 

Renewables and green hydrogen 

India’s advantage of strong domestic demand for renewable energy makes this an area of tremendous growth potential. The country is poised for a tenfold increase in nuclear power generation capacity, with a targeted fourfold increase in total renewable energy capacity to about 2,000 GW by 2047.

 

Greater investments in solar, wind and nuclear energy, grid and storage infrastructure, as well as localised manufacturing of key components, would catapult the sector onto a much higher growth path.

 

With India’s green hydrogen push gaining momentum, major ports, refineries and states are emerging as green hydrogen hubs. The target of achieving 5 million metric tonnes per annum by 2030 appears achievable. However, success will depend on timely expansion of domestic manufacturing capacity for electrolysers and other components, along with accelerated investment in port infrastructure—particularly for containerised exports. By 2030, India could be among the top exporters of solar energy modules and green hydrogen, especially if it capitalises on global diversification away from China.

 

Food processing 

India’s strengths in arable land, crop diversity, and the rise of agri-tech start-ups can be leveraged more effectively through deeper market linkages—especially in organic products targeting health-conscious and affluent markets in the US, Canada, Europe and Australia.

 

India can also emerge as a preferred supplier of ready-to-eat and packaged organic products by using technology for supply chain traceability—bringing greater acceptability for Indian products.

 

By 2030, billions could be added to export earnings in floriculture, horticulture, fisheries, spices, and specialty teas and coffees through investments in agri-tech, warehousing, storage, and training of farmers and youth, while leveraging FTAs.

 

Space-based services 

Leveraging India’s strengths in space and satellite-based technologies, and the nation’s greater geopolitical acceptability, could help India achieve global leadership in this area by 2030.

 

ISRO has already demonstrated India’s prowess in space. Its commercial arm handles business for global clients. India is now poised for a greater share in space-based services—such as satellite launches, Earth observation data, and internet services.

 

In conclusion 

While access to US markets remains important, it is crucial for India to forge its own path in a competitive world. The best way forward is to build on existing strengths and claim a dominant global position—one that makes India indispensable to global markets across these high-potential sectors. 

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Sumita Dawra, Former Secretary to GoI and former Economic Counsellor in the Indian Embassy in China.