What's stopping India from matching Cape Verde's football success?

In a historic moment for global football, Cape Verde, a tiny archipelago off the coast of West Africa, secured qualification for the FIFA World Cup on Monday, October 13. Less than a day later, India suffered a humiliating defeat at home to Singapore, ranked 158th in the world, ending their hopes of making it to the 2027 AFC Asian Cup.

 

The two contrasting results underscore the unpredictable nature of international football and highlight the vastly different trajectories of two nations.

 

 

Cape Verde’s Football Miracle: A David vs Goliath Story

 

 

Cape Verde, a nation of just 10 islands with a population smaller than 2% of New Delhi’s, has emerged from the fringes of African football to claim a place on the world’s biggest stage. This landmark achievement makes them the second smallest nation after Iceland (2018) to qualify for a FIFA World Cup.

 

What makes Cape Verde’s story so remarkable is the strategic use of its diaspora. Many of its national team players have developed their skills in countries like Portugal, France, and the Netherlands, where large Cape Verdean communities exist. Their rise proves that smart planning, diaspora integration, and vision can triumph over size and resource limitations.

 

India’s Never-Ending Struggles: Questions, But Few Answers

 

In stark contrast, India, a country of nearly 1.5 billion people, once again failed to qualify for the Asian Cup, despite the tournament expanding to 24 teams. Losing to a low-ranked side like Singapore at home served as yet another reality check.

 

This result is even more frustrating when considering India's superior infrastructure, financial backing, and a domestic league where players earn crores. However, despite these advantages, international results continue to disappoint. 

 

Top 10 biggest countries to never qualify for FIFA World Cup
Country	Current population (2025 estimate)	2026 World Cup qualification record
India	1.46 billion	Third in AFC Group A (Second Round)
Pakistan	255 million	Fourth in AFC Group G (Second Round)
Bangladesh	175 million	Fourth in AFC Group I (Second Round)
Ethiopia	135 million	Fifth in CAF Group A (First Round)
Philippines	117 million	Fourth in AFC Group F (Second Round)
Vietnam	101 million	Third in AFC Group F (Second Round)
Thailand	71.6 million	Third in AFC Group G (Second Round)
Tanzania	70.5 million	Fourth in CAF Group E (First Round)
Myanmar	54.9 million	Fourth in AFC Group B (Second Round)
Kenya	57.5 million	Fourth in CAF Group F (First Round)

 

  Does Population Size Translate to Football Success?

 

It's easy to assume that a large population automatically produces more talent. But football shows us otherwise.

 

Cape Verde, population around 525,000, qualified for the World Cup by smartly utilizing its overseas talent pipeline. India, with a population nearly 2,800 times larger, has failed to produce a national team capable of consistent performance in Asia, let alone globally.

 

In reality, football success often depends more on scouting, training, and opportunity than sheer numbers.

 

Japan’s Rise: A Benchmark for Asian Football Development

 

One of the most successful footballing nations in Asia in the past two decades has been Japan. Although they first participated in the FIFA World Cup in 1998, their steady rise has been noteworthy. They’ve reached the Round of 16 on four occasions — 2002, 2010, 2018, and 2022.

 

Japan’s performance in the 2022 edition was particularly impressive. They defeated former world champions Spain and Germany en route to the knockout stage, showcasing how structured development programs can yield long-term results.

 

China’s Missteps: Money Can’t Buy Success

 

China, another sporting superpower especially during the Olympics, has struggled to make a mark in football. Their ambitious project in the 2010s to popularize the Chinese Super League by bringing in expensive international talent ended in failure.

 

Although China qualified for the 2002 FIFA World Cup, they haven’t returned since. Their heavy spending lacked a long-term development vision, and the league collapsed under financial strain and a lack of domestic progress, a cautionary tale for others, including India.

 

India’s Talent Clusters: A Nation of Isolated Excellence

 

A revealing study by Richard Hood, a UEFA ‘A’ license coach and former head of the AIFF's Youth Development Program, highlights a crucial flaw in India’s football structure: talent is heavily concentrated in a few regions.

 

Despite having over 800 districts, only 35 of them, home to just 7.4% of India’s population, have produced more than 80% of all professional playing minutes in India’s top leagues over the last 11 seasons.

 

Northeast Leads the Way: Manipur, Mizoram, and Goa

 

Three small states, Manipur, Mizoram, and Goa, are responsible for a staggering 41.4% of all professional playing minutes in the Indian Super League (ISL) and I-League from 2014 to 2025.

 

Breakdown by Key Regions:

 

Manipur’s Five Powerhouses: Imphal East, Imphal West, Thoubal, Bishnupur, and Churachandpur contributed 17.5% of total minutes.

 

Mizoram’s Contribution: Districts like Aizawl, Lunglei, and Champai accounted for 14.7%.

 

Goa: Dominated primarily by South Goa talukas, made up 9.2% of total minutes.

 

Other Key Contributors:

 

West Bengal: 12%

 

Punjab: 10.6%

 

Kerala: 8.2%

 

Maharashtra: 7.3% (mostly from Mumbai and Thane)

 

Despite 198 districts producing at least one professional footballer, only a small fraction see consistent representation, highlighting the lack of widespread development. 

 

The Real Problem: Lack of Exposure and Match Time

 

Even in regions producing top talent, Indian players are not getting enough competitive game time, especially compared to their Asian counterparts.

 

In the 2023-24 season, Indian players trailed significantly behind those from Japan, South Korea, and Uzbekistan in playing minutes across all key positions, from strikers to defenders. These nations, all 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, provide better domestic exposure and developmental pathways.

 

Not Just Talent, But Opportunity

 

The problem isn’t just scouting or skill, it’s access to opportunity.

 

Even in India’s most productive footballing districts, players face limited exposure to high-level coaching and competitive matches. Grassroots programs are few and fragmented. Scouting is mostly restricted to known pockets, leaving potential stars in other regions unnoticed.

 

Other Indian sports like wrestling (Haryana) and hockey (Punjab) have established successful regional pipelines. Football's clusters, though passionate, aren’t producing results at the international level due to systemic issues.

 

What Happens When Talent is Nurtured Properly?

 

Several smaller nations have made World Cup appearances, proving that population is not a prerequisite for success. Some examples include:

 

Iceland – 350,000 population

 

Cape Verde – 525,000 population

 

Paraguay – Under 1 million

 

Trinidad and Tobago – 1.3 million

 

Northern Ireland – 1.4 million

 

Each of these nations built success on solid scouting systems, training infrastructure, and consistent player development. Their stories highlight what’s possible with the right approach, something India has yet to implement fully.

 

Is There a Shortcut for India? Overseas Talent Debate

 

Many football fans and pundits believe India could take a short-term route to boost performance, by including Overseas Citizens of India (OCI) who play professionally abroad.

 

These players, often developed in stronger football ecosystems like Europe or North America, could significantly raise the national team’s level in the immediate future. However, progress on this front has been slow.

 

AIFF president Kalyan Chaubey stated that the matter is under consideration. But the lack of a concrete policy or urgency reflects a broader problem, a reactive, rather than proactive, football administration.

 

The Road Ahead: India Needs a Nationwide Football Vision

 

India's football struggles don’t stem from a lack of passion. Millions follow international football religiously, and the domestic scene has a growing audience. The missing link is translating that passion into performance.

 

The current setup, which fosters talent only in isolated regions, needs a complete overhaul. India requires:

 

A national scouting network

 

Investment in grassroots infrastructure

 

Consistent player development pathways

 

Integration of OCI players and diaspora strategy

 

Cape Verde’s Lesson for India: Vision Beats Size

 

Cape Verde’s World Cup qualification is more than just a Cinderella story, it’s a blueprint. Their rise wasn't accidental. It was built on clear vision, strong planning, and efficient execution.

 

India has the numbers, the money, and the passion. What it lacks is a unified roadmap. To compete with the best in Asia, let alone the world — Indian football must expand its talent pool, develop from the ground up, and act with purpose.

 

The journey ahead may be long, but with the right direction, even a footballing Goliath like India can learn from Cape Verde’s miracle.d a population less than 2% that of New Delhi, has emerged from relative obscurity to claim a spot on football’s biggest stage. This achievement makes them the second smallest nation after Iceland in 2018 to qualify for the FIFA World Cup.

 

Their journey has been powered by a smart and strategic approach, primarily through leveraging their extensive diaspora. Many of their players hail from countries like Portugal, France, and the Netherlands, where Cape Verdean communities have thrived. The country’s success is a testament to what focused planning and diaspora integration can accomplish, regardless of size.

 

 

  

The Core Issues: Limited Exposure and Playing Time

 

Hood’s analysis points to a troubling trend: even in the regions producing top talent, Indian players get significantly less game time compared to players from other leading Asian nations.

 

In the 2023-24 season, Indian players lagged behind those from Japan, South Korea, and Uzbekistan in playing minutes across all key positions, from strikers to defenders. These countries, all of whom are 2026 World Cup qualifiers, provide more consistent exposure and development opportunities to their domestic players.

 

Time for Structural Change

 

India’s footballing woes are not due to a lack of interest or enthusiasm, millions follow global leagues passionately. But passion has not translated into performance. The current system, which nurtures talent only in small pockets, lacks the nationwide structure needed to elevate the game.

 

Cape Verde’s triumph offers a powerful lesson: success isn't determined by size but by vision, strategy, and execution. India has the numbers, resources, and passion, now it needs a roadmap that brings more of the country into the game.