Ratings firm CRISIL said that India's goods exports are likely to face some headwinds in fiscal 2026, as reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US are seen to aggravate this. With the tariff hikes expected to come into effect from August, India and the US are negotiating on a bilateral trade agreement and a key monitorable, the report said. The World Trade Organisation forecasts a 0.2 per cent decline in the volume of merchandise trade in 2025 compared to 2.9 per cent in 2024. The report said global growth is expected to slow down to 2.9 per cent in 2025 from 3.3 per cent. Growth in the US, India's largest export destination, is projected to slow to 1.7 per cent from 2.8 per cent. Accordingly, India's merchandise trade is expected to come under pressure this fiscal. However, the current account deficit (CAD) is expected to stay in the safe zone at 1.3 per cent of the GDP in the current financial year. The surplus in services trade, a robust flow of remittances is expected to cushion
India's exports of goods and services hit a record $825 billion in FY25, up from $778 billion in FY24. Meanwhile, the World Bank projects global growth at 2.3% in 2025, the weakest in 17 years
The country's overall goods and services exports are expected to reach USD 1 trillion during 2025-26, according to apex exporters' body FIEO. In 2024-25, the exports were aggregated at USD 825 billion. Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) President S C Ralhan said merchandise exports will increase from USD 437 billion to USD 525-535 billion in 2025-26. He said that services exports may rise from USD 387 billion to USD 465-475 billion this fiscal. The main sectors which can help push the exports include electrical and electronics (USD 60 billion), machinery (USD 40 billion), chemicals (USD 40 billion), pharmaceuticals (USD 30 billion), petroleum (USD 70 billion), apparel and madeups (USD 23-25 billion), gems and jewellery (USD 30-35 billion) and agriculture (USD 55 billion).
The Rodtep scheme seeks to refund the duties/taxes/levies, at the Central, State and local level, borne on the exported product, including prior stage cumulative indirect taxes on goods
Commerce dept officials to meet FinMin soon; more allocation may be needed
The country's exports of goods and services rose marginally by 0.4 per cent to USD 765.6 billion in 2023 despite global economic uncertainties, according to the commerce ministry data. Sectors which helped keep India's exports afloat include electronics, pharmaceuticals, cotton yarn, fabrics and made-ups; ceramic products, meat, dairy and poultry products, fruits and vegetables and information technology. Goods exports in the last calendar year, however, contracted by 4.71 per cent to USD 431.9 billion while services exports are estimated to have risen by 7.88 per cent to USD 333.8 billion, the data showed. The merchandise imports also dipped by 7 per cent to USD 667.73 billion last year as against USD 720.2 billion in 2022. The latest data for the services sector released by the RBI is for November 2023. The data for December 2023 is an estimation by the ministry. The main export destinations for India are the US, the UAE, the Netherlands, Bangladesh, the UK and Germany. Goods .
Despite disruptions in the global economy, India's goods and services exports stood at $670 billion and exceeded the $400-billion target for merchandise export alone, he said
The rates for 8,555 products - such as marine, agriculture, leather, gems and jewellery - were announced under the RoDTEP scheme in August this year.
An important condition is that the re-imported goods must be identified as the same as exported