S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday said core inflation in India has been declining sequentially, and an elevated 6.25 per cent policy rate limits the need for further rate hikes. The Reserve Bank has increased the short-term lending rate by 225 basis points since May last year to contain inflation, mostly driven by external factors, especially global supply chain disruption, following the Russia-Ukraine war outbreak. The policy rate now stands at 6.25 per cent. The RBI's rate-setting panel - Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) - will decide on the interest rate on Wednesday. "In India, core inflation has been elevated for longer; however, it eased sequentially in the second half of 2022. An already elevated 6.25 per cent policy rate limits the need for further increases," S&P said in a report. The RBI has been tasked to ensure that retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent. However, external factors have led retail inflation to remain above the upper tolerance .
Economists at SBI on Monday said they expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to hit the pause button on interest rate hike at its upcoming monetary policy review this week. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the six-member rate setting panel, is likely to continue with the current 'withdrawal of accommodation' stance, the SBI economists said. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das-headed MPC started its three-day meeting on Monday and it will announce the decision on Wednesday. "Even though RBI could pause as it allows past rate actions to work with long and variable lags, the RBI could still guide the markets with a rate action in future that will be purely data dependent," the note said. Expecting headline inflation to decline closer to 5 per cent by March 2023 and further to 4.2 per cent in April, the economists said they expect a pause from the RBI at the next policy announcement and the present repo rate of 6.25 per cent will be the terminal rate. With the headline ...
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