Trump's immigration crackdown hurts some American workers, study finds

Study questions whether stricter immigration enforcement boosts jobs for Americans, noting foreign-born and native-born workers often complement each other rather than compete for the same roles

By Augusta Saraiva

 

President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown is negatively impacting some US-born workers in heavily targeted industries like construction, according to a paper released by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 

Areas that experienced particularly large increases in Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests saw a decline in work among US-born male workers, driven by those with a high school degree or less, the study found. The researchers also saw no evidence that employers increased wages to attract US-born workers to fill roles. 

 

The research casts doubt on the idea that stricter immigration enforcement would lead to more job opportunities for Americans, in part because foreign-born and native-born labour often complement rather than substitute for each other. 

 

 

“We show no evidence of positive effects of the labour market outcomes of US-born workers in immigrant-heavy industries,” authors Elizabeth Cox and Chloe East, researchers at the University of Colorado Boulder, wrote. “If anything, these US-born workers are harmed as a result.”

 

The research highlights the chilling effect the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown is having across the US — and the spillover effects it has beyond immigrant communities. From skipping work to keeping their children home from school and avoiding in-person shopping and social events, many undocumented immigrants are choosing to lay low in the wake of enforcement activity.

 

The authors found that those dynamics seem to increase over time, in part “because it takes time for the chilling effect to fully manifest as news spreads throughout the community about ICE activity.”

 

Male workers classified by the researchers as “likely undocumented immigrants” saw an outsize 5% reduction in employment and hours worked. That’s because they not only make up most of the arrests but are also overrepresented in affected industries like agriculture, construction and manufacturing.

 

There were some 320,000 ICE arrests registered throughout the US last year, nearly three times as many seen in 2024, according to data compiled by the University of California at Berkeley’s Deportation Data Project.