Rains during the June-September season are likely to be 99% of the long-term average, Deshmukh said in a forecast keenly watched by traders and policymakers.
The state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD) considers rains between 96-104% of a 50-year average of 89 centimetres in the entire four-month season as normal. The last time there was a drought with rains below this range was 2009 and before that, in 2004.
Monsoon rains, vital for agricultural output and economic growth, irrigate about 60% of farms in the world's second-biggest producer of rice, wheat, sugar and cotton.
The farm sector accounts for about 15% of India's nearly $2 trillion economy.
The latest government forecast is also in line with last week's estimate of a global weather forum.
In 2009, the El Nino weather pattern turned monsoon rains patchy, leading to the worst drought in nearly four decades. Rains were within long-term averages in following years, helped by La Nina.
El Nino, an abnormal warming of waters in the equatorial tropical Pacific, is linked with poor rains or a drought-like situation in southeast Asia and Australia.
The La Nina weather pattern, which is associated with heavy rains in south Asia and flooding in the Asia-Pacific region and South America, and drought in Africa, ended in March.
In the interim before El Nino appears, weather officials say a neutral condition continues over the tropical Pacific.