Policy makers in developing Asia can refrain from further monetary and fiscal stimulus because growth will remain robust, while oil-price spikes can revive the threat of inflation, the Asian Development Bank said.
The Chinese currency’s appreciation against the US dollar may slow as higher labour and other domestic costs make it tougher for the nation to compete in export markets, the bank said. The Manila-based lender cut its estimate for China’s growth this year to 8.5 per cent from a September forecast of 9.1 per cent, according to its 2012 outlook released on Wednesday. The bank didn’t give a specific projection for the yuan.
Asia excluding Japan will expand 6.9 per cent this year from 7.2 per cent in 2011, the Manila-based lender forecast in its Asian Development Outlook 2012 report released on Wednesday. That is lower than its September forecast of 7.5 per cent. Growth will accelerate to 7.3 per cent in 2013, the fastest pace in three years, it said.
“There is no clear case for short-term policy responses, but if inflationary pressures build up again and capital inflows resume, there may be a need to readjust monetary policy to maintain price stability,” Changyong Rhee, ADB chief economist, said in a statement.
Asian central banks from Thailand to Malaysia have refrained from interest-rate cuts and policy makers in Indonesia and South Korea are expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged at meetings this week.