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Arvind Subramanian: Indian banking - Reform by death

Since the government cannot privatise public sector banks, the central bank should force it to let the bad ones fail

Arvind Subramanian 

Arvind Subramanian

The past is never dead. It's not even past," noted the American novelist William Faulkner. Arguably, the two most egregious economic policy mistakes of the past that continue to haunt India were the licensing of Indian industry during the Nehru years and the of private by in 1969. These actions had one common disastrous feature: penalising and expropriating the Indian Other policies that turned out to have adverse consequences were different in principle. They at least purported to help the (such as the imposition of trade barriers to protect industry from foreign competition) or fill in for it (such as the creation of the public sector).

Restrictive industrial licensing policies have been almost completely reversed, although their consequences still linger (most notably in the weak performance of Indian manufacturing). But bank endures as a millstone around the Indian economy, a grim reminder and legacy of Indira Gandhi's policies.

Undoing this legacy may well turn out to be one of the most critical tasks for the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) current governor, The problem is so intractable and so embedded in Indian politics that only he can, and can afford to, take on the challenge.

On the face of it, that task has begun. The will soon be awarding new banking to allow for a greater role for But this may not be enough. Consider why.

Since 1991, an overarching principle for eliminating inefficiency in vast parts of the economy has been this: to promote competition via entry rather than change ownership through This approach had some intrinsic merit - after all, Russia went from communism to gangsterism because it sold public assets cheaply to a few oligarchs.

More importantly, the entry-favouring approach had the virtue of political expediency. Privatising companies would have encountered significant opposition from their managers as well as from strong unions. Allowing companies to enter the market without touching the incumbents bypassed some of these costs and allowed reform to proceed by stealth. The logic and hope, of course, were that a vibrant would grow rapidly while the would shrink, at least in relative terms.

And the strategy broadly worked. Yes, is still a mess and a public burden, but the Indian aviation and telecommunication sectors of today are mercifully - and unrecognisably - different from what they were 20 years ago, with enormous benefits for the Indian economy. companies now account for a small share of the overall size of these sectors.

This entry-favouring strategy was tried in banking too. Since the early 1990s, a number of new banking were given to the - think of ICICI, HDFC, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra, Yes Bank, and so on. Yet, the share of in total banking (measured as a share of assets or deposits) has stubbornly persisted around 75 per cent. And the reason is simple. The private have grown, but the have grown too because India's politicians have used them as a way to channel money to operators - often very influential ones. The credit boom of the 2000s, which is now manifesting itself in rising non-performing loans, emanated mostly in the did not borrow from private banks; he was enabled into borrowing from, and undermining, the public ones. So, going forward the fact of more private is no guarantee of reducing the role of

This will be especially true if the new are encumbered with regulations such as priority sector lending, which restricts their ability to grow. So, as new banking are awarded, the aim should be to tilt the playing field as much as possible against the incumbents in whose favour the playing field is already hugely tilted by way of unlimited financial support from the public exchequer.

One possibility relates to foreign It is true that the world over - and especially in the United States - regulators are forcing foreign to create subsidiaries in host countries so that they will have more capital to cushion against crises. But in India the benefits of subsidiarisation must be weighed against the costs of deterring foreign bank entry, which might have other benefits such as being able to effectively compete and out-compete

What can be done more directly to reduce the role of Because such are important levers of political control and influence, and because bank unions remain powerful, explicit seems off the table. But there is an indirect way of privatising them, or at least beginning the process of privatisation, which the should seize. And the opportunities could present themselves soon.

As growth declines and exposes the fragility of some of the public in the form of rising non-performing loans, the should be brutal in its assessment of them, erring on the side of declaring some as unviable commercial institutions. The government will want to bail out the failing through fresh capital infusions.

But here is where the should stand firm, urging the government to let them go, on the grounds that a fragile economy can afford neither the fiscal costs of bailouts nor the efficiency costs of bad continuing to be prolonged on life support. The worse the economy, the more the bargaining chips Dr Rajan will have. And he should use them to resolve the bad public banks, in part by transferring their good parts to the

This strategy may sound difficult to implement. Indeed, it will be. But it is the only way forward. The past two decades have taught us that private cannot really grow unless and until are shrunk. That shrinking may have to be achieved by allowing the bad to fail because politics will never allow good to be privatised. It was famously said that in science progress is made one funeral at a time. Unfortunately, that may be the only realistic way of reforming Indian banking too.

The writer is senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics and Centre for Global Development

First Published: Fri, March 07 2014. 22:48 IST