The slowdown in growth of software exports has created a scenario where up to 55,000 fresh engineers from government-recognised colleges are yet to get jobs.
According to a Merrill Lynch study, the IT industry employed 3,27,00 engineers as on March 31, 2002. Of these, while 1,90,000 engineers were employed abroad, around 1,37,000 were employed with the domestic industry.
The excess supply of 55,000 engineers is largely on account of 80,000 fresh engineers, who graduated during 2001-02, the study said, adding, as many as 23,000 fresh graduates were employed abroad, while 12,000 secured jobs in the domestic industry.
Meanwhile, nearly 10,000 engineers emigrated after the 9/11 incident. Total demand during 2001-02 thus created jobs for only 25,000 engineers, leaving 55,000 jobless.
The scenario, however, was healthier during 2000-01, when the demand for fresh engineers exceeded supply by 27,000.
In 2000-01, around 2,92,000 engineers were working in India and abroad. Around 25,000 engineers migrated to US. The total demand during 2000-01 was for 1,02,000 engineers, while the supply was 75,000 engineers.
There are indications that the surplus inventory of engineers will take another two years to clear up.
The Merrill Lynch research estimated that during 2002-03 around 45,000 engineers will get jobs abroad, 27,000 would be employed in the domestic industry, while around 10,000 will migrate to the US, creating fresh opportunities for 82,000 engineers. Demand is expected to exceed supply by 2,000.
In 2003-04, fresh employment opportunities abroad are estimated to increase by 68,000, while the domestic industry could fill up to 41,000 vacancies.
Assuming that 15,000 engineers will migrate to US, there will be a demand for 1,24,000 engineers, and since fresh supply will continue to be around 80,000, there will demand supply gap of 44,000 engineers.
The current scenario of excess engineers will also have a cascading effect on private IT educational institutes.
NIIT, SSI and Aptech will see fewer enrollments, as students of private education institutes would find it more difficult to secure jobs.
