The first US sanctions have been reimposed on Iran with little sign of either side softening its position. Curbs on oil exports will follow in early November and the effect will be bigger and swifter than last time around. Oil forecasters don't seem to have grasped that yet.
There’s no doubt that President Donald Trump will be tougher on Iran than Barack Obama was, with no gradual ratcheting-up of pressure. Importers are expected to have tapered off oil purchases by November 5, when the curbs come into effect.
Any waivers granted to buyers will still require much bigger cuts than they did

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