To cut rate or not?

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s fourth monetary review, under Governor Urjit Patel, is scheduled next month. Will it cut rate, or won't it?

Reasons against

Inflation: A sharp decline in retail inflation in August might not allay fears

FCNR (B) deposit maturity: Sep-Nov. If FCNR outflow adds up with general outflow after rate cut, it would be disastrous

US elections: In November. Has ramifications for global economy that RBI needs to account for

7th Pay panel award: Could lead to spike in inflation

Reasons in favour

Inflation: Fall is sharper than expected
IIP numbers: Depressing contraction would make the industry lobby, and finance ministry, push for a rate cut
Correct timing: Waiting for next policy in December could be bad timing, with uncertainties over US Fed
Reserve's impending decision

  Source: Bloomberg