Glut, bird flu scare may soften prices of maize, barley

MARKET OUTLOOK

The coarse grain market is expected to show mixed trends in the next couple of days. Arrivals and reports of a second outbreak of bird flu in West Bengal could play an important role in deciding which way the market will go next week.

Maize and barley are seen trading on the lower side as both commodities will see rabi season arrivals soon. On the other hand, sorghum (jowar) and bajra (pearl millet) could witness bullish sentiments.

Last week, maize prices in physical markets were down about 1.3 per cent at Rs 745 a quintal. This also affected the barley spot market, where prices slipped around 2 per cent as compared with last week.

Arrivals of barley have already slowed to a trickle in mandis and are only expected to gather momentum by March-end. Marketmen in Rajasthan (a major barley growing state) expect prices to go down to as low as Rs 900 a quintal mainly on the assumption that export demand will be weaker this year.

Marketmen said that importing countries have turned to Ukraine, the traditional source of barley for West Asian countries, as it has opened more than 16 lakh tonnes of barley stock for export.

However, the futures market is rife with speculation. The post-harvest contract has touched nearly Rs 1,100 a quintal, a jump of more than Rs 40 in the last week.

The maize rabi crop is expected to hit the market in April. A long term view of the maize market suggests a strong trend but for the time being, the combined impact of bird flu and arrivals may not let the market rise.

Amit Sachdev, the Indian representative of the US Grains Council, said, "Maize prices could stabilise at current rates but there is room for a decline."

"Since sorghum arrivals have not begun, as it is yet to be harvested, the commodity has a bias for an upside," added Sachdev. Sorghum prices jumped over 9.5 per cent at Rs 956 a quintal compared with the previous week.