On June 1, Air India’s evening flight from New Delhi to Bhubaneswar returned almost empty. The reason: most of the passengers booked on that flight could not make it to Biju Patnaik Airport because the only road leading to the terminal was jammed with a sea of people for a distance of one kilometre. Even Union Coal Minister Prakash Jaiswal, who had arrived on that flight on an official visit, had to wait more than three hours to exit the airport.
The melee on the airport road was caused by an enthusiastic crowd of over 70,000 people eagerly waiting to receive Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, who was returning after a nine-day tour to the UK. More importantly, the suave Patnaik had just survived a bid by some of his partymen to oust him in absentia.
As the cavalcade headed towards Patnaik’s residence just outside the airport, the chief minister appeared visibly overwhelmed by the warm reception. He must have been mightily relieved, too, at this reaffirmation of his popularity in the state.
That, in fact, was the point that Patnaik loyalists made to rebel legislators in the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) to foil a coup by the chief minister’s confidant and Rajya Sabha MP Pyari Mohan Mohapatra. Jettisoning Patnaik, they reasoned, would amount to committing political hara-kiri given his enormous personal popularity.
And indeed, one of the key reasons the coup failed was that some of Mohapatra’s more ardent supporters backed out, fearing a rout in state elections that are less than two years away should they contest under a different symbol.
Indian politicians who have long tenures in power tend to suffer from an incumbency disadvantage. Patnaik’s surging popularity after 12 years in power contradicts that common notion. Does he owe it to his clean image, weak opposition or the reverence of people for his late father Biju Patnaik? Or can it be attributed to the economic prosperity the state has achieved during his tenure? The answer could be all of the above.
The last point first. Helped by an increased flow of funds from the Centre and internal revenue generation, the state government has been able to launch many developmental programmes in the last 12 years. In addition to the Centre’s flagship schemes for employment generation, provision of road, water, electricity and pensions to the poor and the invalid, and backward region development assistance, the state has launched about two dozen programmes of its own covering various vulnerable sections. Indeed, the single biggest reason attributed for Patnaik’s return to power for a third-term was a programme providing rice at Rs 2 per kg to all families below the poverty line.
The significant point about this blatantly populist welfarism is that it has not been at the expense of state finances. On the contrary, Patnaik has been able to deliver revenue surpluses since 2004-05, the result of steady economic growth. The state’s annual growth rate overshot the national growth rate in the 11th Plan, the gap between the state’s per capita income and the national average has narrowed considerably in the last decade.
On the investment front, Odisha has figured among top three states in the country for the past several years (Click here for table). Though some big-ticket projects like those of Posco and ArcelorMittal still hang in the balance owing to land, environment and mining issues, the state has been able to see the implementation of investments worth Rs 1 lakh crore by commissioning a host of mid-sized steel projects, power plants and couple of ports.
More than these economic achievements, it is Patnaik’s clean image that has proved his biggest political asset. Many scams have surfaced in the last three years of his third-term as chief minister — mining, coal and a mid-day meal scheme being among the prominent ones. But nothing has stuck to Patnaik’s spotless white attire. Each time he has deflected the charges towards the bureaucrats or ministers responsible and taken prompt action against them. During his tenure as chief minister, over a dozen senior bureaucrats have been jailed or suspended and two dozen ministers have been sacked, lending credence to his “crusader” status.
Ironically, because of his immense influence over Patnaik in such matters as ministry formation, bureaucrat postings and distribution of party tickets during elections, fingers were pointed at Mohapatra as the root of the ills in the administration. It is even alleged that Mohapatra’s attempted coup had the backing of the mining lobby that was suffering restraints on their business imposed by the chief minister.
Whatever the truth is, Mohapatra’s exit means that Patnaik no longer has a buffer. He will have to either get into the controversial businesses of HR and financial management or find a new trusted aide to deflect unsavoury charges. Either way, Patnaik will have a new set of challenges to face. With state elections less than two years away, this could be his biggest test yet.
