Editorial: Limited gains

Thus, while the rise in farm output is surely a matter of satisfaction as it can lead to higher rural incomes, given the prevailing high commodity prices, its implications really go beyond this. For, it would result in an upward revision of the agricultural and overall gross domestic product (GDP) numbers. The agriculture and allied sector growth in 2007-08 was projected earlier at 4.5 per cent on the basis of the agriculture ministry's previous crop output estimate, which was relatively low. At that time, foodgrain output growth was estimated at a mere 4.6 per cent, against the 6 per cent growth that is now being projected. Similarly, growth in cotton was anticipated at merely 2.5 per cent earlier, against the much higher 14 per cent according to the revised estimate. The story is similar for other crops, including oilseeds and pulses. Such an upward revision of farm sector growth estimates is set to push up, though very marginally, the overall GDP growth figure of 9 per cent for 2007-08 as the farm sector still constitutes about 17 per cent of the overall GDP.

 

That said, the truth also is that such a big jump in farm output in a single year is not uncommon. Nor does this guarantee sustained growth in the coming years. Increases in foodgrain production by more than 13 million tonnes in a year, as seen last year, took place at least twice