This refers to Rathin Roy's column "The politics of growth projection"(Public Interest, May 5). The accuracy of a forecast is measured by a simple comparison of the ex ante forecast with the actuals ex post. But what is India's actual gross domestic product (GDP) in a given year that can be used to judge a forecast's accuracy? It is perhaps the official final estimate of GDP that emerges after several corrections. But a question arises regarding the accuracy of the official GDP figure, which itself is an estimate based presumably on an underlying operational methodology - which involves several approximations based on variables and subjective assessments.
It would not be feasible to work out the GDP by individually aggregating the value of each item of goods and services. The official GDP figure, however, is an estimate the concerned authorities do not put in public domain. Besides, the absence of an independent auditor to check the authenticity and accuracy of various data and information used in working out the GDP estimate also does not enhance the credibility of data accuracy.
Economists seldom agree on estimates, forecasts or policy prescriptions. In the absence of politics, economic decision-making would perhaps have been in perennial limbo.
Biplab Chakraborty Kolkata
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