Many, including this paper (Weekend Ruminations November 4), believe that the second quarter onwards the growth rate will rebound. The numbers will bring more cheer, especially to the government. But, what if the second quarter growth is not that good? Do the “whiners” rejoice while the “shiners” go into a sulk? Do we really need to pin so much hope on a number (or numbers)? After all, how reliable is the initial growth estimate as an indicator of economic health?
The nub of the matter is how we arrive at that growth number. How and when are estimates of the performance
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