Vulnerable agriculture

That climate change is already upon us and is going to adversely impact various walks of life is now well understood and appreciated by most decision-makers. What should cause concern in India is the evidence gradually unfolding, that Indian agriculture, despite being a relatively minor contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, will be a big loser if global temperatures rise. On top of the ominous prophesy of a 10-40 per cent drop in India's farm production by 2080-2110, the New Delhi-based Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) has now warned that the country's annual wheat output could plunge by 4-5 million tonnes with every 1 degree Celsius rise in temperature. These projections cannot and should not be brushed aside as long-term issues that have no immediacy. For, the adverse impact of temperature changes on wheat output has already been in evidence for the past few years and has contributed to the recent wheat crisis, transforming India from a wheat exporter to an importer and forcing the government to re-introduce curbs on the wheat trade.

The silver lining to this otherwise very cloudy scenario is that it is possible to mitigate the damage through adjustments in agronomic practices, including the time of crop sowing, and by evolving varieties capable of withstanding heat and other adverse climatic factors. The other reassuring fact, even though yet to be fully validated, is that the impact of global warming on the kharif (summer) crops may not be as much as on the rabi (winter) harvest and may, in fact, be positive for some crops. But such hypotheses provide cold comfort as these do not take into account the likely reduction in the availability of water for agriculture, due to both the shrinking of Himalayan glaciers and growth in demand from burgeoning urban centres.

All this leads basically to one conclusion "" that the efforts to prepare the country's fragile farm sector to adjust to the changing climatic and ecological realities need to be redoubled. From this perspective, it is reassuring that the Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR) has recently roped in some 15 research institutes and agricultural universities spread across the country to develop science-based strategies for adapting to the emerging conditions and mitigating their detrimental effects on agriculture. More organisations are proposed to be brought into this network during the 11th Plan (2007-12). But it needs to be recognised that the cash-strapped ICAR may not be able to do justice to this vital programme without liberal funding support from the government.

It is also essential that the country evolve strategies to simultaneously curtail the agriculture sector's GHG emissions, which are the cause of global warming. Since paddy fields and livestock are the main emitters of environment-unfriendly methane, and nitrogenous fertilisers of even more hurtful nitrous oxide, changes would have to be achieved in water and fertiliser management in the fields, and in the dietary pattern of livestock, to achieve this objective. Simultaneous action on all fronts would, obviously, throw up better results than any piecemeal approach. Indeed, given the large number of people still dependent on agriculture for a living and the low level of incomes they earn today, this environmental issue has linked to it economic and social questions of fundamental import.