The anti-incumbency factor and an electoral alliance between two major Opposition parties may unseat the Congress in the Mizoram Assembly polls due on November 25.
The Congress has been in power in the border state for nearly a decade.
Of the four states to go to polls in November, the Congress is perhaps the weakest in Mizoram. In the recent elections to the lone Lok Sabha seat in the state, the Congress led in only 13 Assembly segments while the Mizoram People's Conference (MPC) and the Mizo National Front (MNF) alliance led in 25 segments.
The Congress finished second in Serchhip, the constituency of Chief Minister Lalthanhawla, who is under a probe, ordered by the Supreme Court, into a multi-crore scam in various departments.
Congress candidate Lalsangzuala was defeated in the Lok sabha election.
In the 1993 Assembly polls, the Congress won 16 seats, its poll partner the Mizoram Janata Dal (MJD) bagged eight, while the Opposition MNF won 14 seats and the remaining two went to independents. The MJD has now become the MPC, and has allied with the MNF led by Zoramthanga, a close aide of Laldenga.
In a joint statement last week, the MNF and the MPC announced an electoral alliance in 20 out of the 40 Assembly constituencies. The state has an electorate of nearly 4 lakh.
As per previous voting patterns, the MNF commands about 80,000 votes, the MPC around 50,000 while the Congress party usually gets about one lakh votes.
Besides, there are other small parties with ethnic affiliations who are likely to play a role in shaping the outcome in at least 10 constituencies. These are the Mara Democratic Front in Chhimtuipui east district, Lai People's Party of Chhimtuipui west, Paite National Council and Hmar People's Convention in the northeastern part and the Bru National Union in the western belt.
With the BJP capitalising on the Reangs issue and winning over the Chakmas and other minorities, the Congress base among them has further dwindled. After Laldenga's death, the MNF too paid less attention to these areas.
