New Mood Among Dalits To See Bjp Get 30-Plus Seats

There is likely to be a swing of 7 to 9 per cent votes in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party-Samata party combine in Bihar. This means more than 30 Lok Sabha seats for the combine in the state. The swing was expected to be more if Sonia Gandhi had not intervened.

The swing in favour of the combine is largely due to the changing profile of Dalit voters, 40 per cent of whom have veered round the BJP and the Samata Party. A major fragmentation of Dalit votes has led to an interesting scenario. While Paswans (5 per cent of the population) have by and large favoured Ram Vilas Paswans Janata Dal, a significant chunk of the other Dalits (around 11 per cent of the population) have decided to throw their weight behind the BJP. Wherever the electoral profile is dominated by Muslims, Dalits have by and large preferred the BJP, Javed Alam, a Congress worker in Katihar says.

 

There are 20 Lok Sabha seats in the state where Muslims constitute more than 15 per cent of the population. Muslims constitute 66 per cent of the total population in Kishanganj, 36 per cent in Katihar, 29 per cent in Purnea, 28 per cent in Araria, 22 percent in Darbhanga and 22 per cent in Bettiah.

A survey of these areas suggests that the BJP-Samata combine is expected to do well in these constituencies. This is largely because of additional Dalit votes. So far, we have supported Laloo Yadav for nothing. Let us try the BJP this time, Manohar Rishidev, an educated Dalit of Araria said.

BJPs slogan `Abki bari, Atal Behari (It is Atal Behari Vajpayees turn this time) has appealed the Dalits the most. Vajpayeeji to mahatma admi hai. Unko raj karne ka mouka diya jay. (Vajpayee is like a saint. He should be allowed to rule), Palat Das of Saharsa says. Vajpayee is seen as a saviour among illiterate Dalits, much in the Indira Gandhi mould, but this does not mean that all Dalits support the BJP. Sonia Gandhi has had an impact.

The BJP-Samata Party combine had got 35 per cent votes in the 1996 Lok Sabha elections (BJPs share was 20.5 per cent and Samatas 14.5 per cent).

With an addition of around 9 per cent votes, the combine will attain the level of vote percentage the Congress used to get till 1962. The social base of the BJP-Samata combine has increased considerably.

In addition to a majority of upper caste and bania votes, the combine is expected to get a large number of non-Yadav, other backward caste (OBC) votes. The turnaround in the BJP-Samatas fortune is mainly due to new, aggressive support from the non-Yadav OBCs.

The swing in the combines favour is also partly due to strong anti-Laloo Yadav feeling among upper caste, non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits. The upper castes and non-Yadav OBCs are upset with Laloo Yadav because of his alleged involvement in the multi-crore animal husbandry scam. Laloo Yadav has reduced everything to a farce. He looted the state treasury.

Developmental works were completely disrupted. Inter-caste clashes increased and law and order situation worsened, says Parveen Jha of Madhubani. Dalits are upset with Laloo Yadav for many reasons.

While Ram Vilas Paswan managed to wean away Dalit votes from him, a weak Janata Dal has not attracted Dalits either.

Another reason for the new support for the BJP-Samata Party is that there is a feeling that only this combine will be able to provide a stable government.

There is no way the Congress will get a majority this time.

We have had enough of Congress governments and all of them have failed miserably. The BJP is the best bet this time, Manohar Prasad, a school teacher in Madhubani said.