Seeds Of This Seasons Bumper Crop

Liberalisation of world trade in agriculture has revived hopes of its resurgence especially in India, Southern Cone countries and Africa which enjoy a comparative advantage in this sector. However, market failures are endemic in rural economies and trade liberalisation cannot alone cure the problems typical to third world countries. The spread of benefits of trade liberalisation to these countries will depend on their ability to create institutions of market mechanisms to alleviate market failure.

Agricultural research, the keystone of productivity growth in the rural economy, prepared the ground for the green revolution. Theodore W Schultzs classic Transforming Traditional Agriculture pointed out that rational but poverty stricken peasants of underdeveloped countries are unable to take advantage of market opportunities. The scale barriers of agriculture were overcome at the time of the green revolution by combining the resources of international agriculture experiment stations and their smaller national counterparts.

 

According to a study cited by Derek Byerlee and Prabhu Pingali in their absorbing review of Asian Agricultural Research Systems, Nearly half of all rice varietal releases outside China since 1996 have been based on IRRI cultivars or crosses derived from IRRI germ plasm. However, the potential for raising farm productivity, created by large experiment stations, has been exhausted and the rate of cereal yield growth in Asia has slowed from 3.2 per cent between 1973-72 to less than 2.0 per cent between 1983-92.

The vision of the future of agriculture sees research dispersed over numerous small stations that are sensitive to the local agro-climatic conditions. Scientists from a variety of disciplines will focus their efforts on raising productivity by site-specific crop management rather than crop breeding. Increasingly, bio-technology will engineer seeds to suit the peculiar conditions in each area. Investment in inputs will be substituted by knowledge to make the best of resources.

Rural communities have yet to overcome illiteracy and they seem unprepared for the swelling knowledge that will influence competition in the world market for agricultural goods. Citing the success story of horticulture exports from Chile, the paper by Frederic Martin et al, quotes a study which concludes: One of the keys to the success was developing mechanisms for effective transfer of technical knowledge on varieties and market opportunities from California to Chile. The human capital investment was very important.

Michel Petit and Suzanne Gnaegy, writing about Kenyas fresh vegetables export boom, conclude: Kenyas competitive advantage was further enhanced by the rapid development of its agro-processing industry, which provided a buyer of sub-export standard produce.

The unfolding story of renaissance in agriculture has several other currents that have been ignored in this book. In particular, the issue of post-harvest practices has been barely mentioned. The damaging influence of the ubiquitous parasatals gets a cursory mention. Writing about the impact of the end of government monopoly in marketing of agricultural exports from Morocco, Petit and Gnaegy make these revealing remarks: Since that time, export companies and related enterprise have blossomed in the private sector... a transport company has also been established cooperatively by a number of the large exporters, to coordinate and standardise exports to Europe... crop diversification has also been taking place as export market diversification away from France.

Historically, rural economies have been plagued by price fluctuations and the consequent distress has been the source of political turmoil. Unfounded fears of speculation have been the stumbling block to the economists remedy of commodity exchanges. In some rare cases like Malaysia, the growth of commodity exchanges has been promising. Modern times have also seen agri-business make great strides calling for less egalitarian land ownership. Some early efforts have been made to extend credit to the very poor with guarantees from community leaders. All these trends have a vital bearing on the future growth of agriculture but the authors disappoint by not referring to them.