National and state polls remain steady with some tightening, but overall Joe Biden holds his lead both nationally and in key battleground states, according to a report by Apco Worldwide.
The one important change is that infections, hospitalisations, and deaths from Covid-19 are worsening, especially in the Midwest.
Despite this, in his closing argument, President Donald Trump continues to downplay the pandemic and instead attacks Biden any way he can. Biden's closing argument focuses on the need to fight the pandemic and demonstrating the need for leadership.
"Regardless of what happens election night, don't be surprised if Trump proclaims victory on November 3 and for Biden to be more reserved, unless it is a clear blowout for him and then he will claim victory", the analysis said.
That said, don't expect either candidate to concede on election night. It is entirely possible that Trump will be ahead in several key states, but as mail-in ballots are counted, his lead could disappear, and Biden emerges as the victor. This is the scenario that most worry about and how both sides react to this will be critical to whether we see a protracted legal challenge from Trump, the analysis said.
"By all accounts, the trends in the race for President are holding in place since our last analysis. National and state polls remain steady with some tightening, but overall Biden holds his lead both nationally and in key battleground states," the report said.
The report says that Democrats will hold leads in early in-person and mail-in voting, while Republicans will do better on Election Day voting. "Pay attention to what results are being reported before jumping to conclusions," it said.
There are very few "swing" counties up for grabs in 2020. The election will hinge on which party can run up larger margins in their home base. Watch for comparisons to past elections, it said.
Don't forget the Senate, it said. Every vote counts in a body of 100 members. The importance of the composition of the Senate cannot be underestimated in the next Congress. It's very likely (but not a guarantee) that the Democrats will win control of the Senate. Their margin in the Senate, however, will depend on races in Iowa, Montana, Georgia, South Carolina, Alaska, Kansas, and Texas.
"Do forget the House", it added. There are a handful of races that may tell a larger story about what is happening on Election Night, and some fascinating individual candidates, but the outcome of the election isn't in question. Democrats will hold the majority in the next Congress, as per the report.
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