Aditi Nayar

8% GDP growth in Q2 may evince pause in RBI's MPC December review

Interestingly, the US Federal Reserve's December 2025 meeting is a few days after the MPC's last scheduled review for 2025, in which it may cut rates further.

PLI incentive schemes: achieving ambitions, but timelines and progress vary

ICRA estimates that around Rs. 2.5 trillion capex will be incurred by March 2026, which is 60-65 per cent of the total estimated capex

Revenue deficit, capital spends: Key takeaways from 15th finance commission

The 15th FC had recommended a sizeable Rs. 2.9 trillion as revenue deficit grants (RDG) to a select number of states for FY2022-FY2026

Evolving growth-inflation dynamics unlikely to permit further rate cuts

Economic hit due to US tariff decisions likely to be accentuated

RBI Policy: Full of surprises, dovish on growth, neutral on further cuts

With inflation expected to rise back to above 4 per cent by Q4-FY26, the Monetary Policy Committee has capitalised upon the available headroom to frontload rate action

RBI's growth outlook is optimistic amid global concerns; see 50bps more cut

We expect the GDP growth to print at 6.2 per cent in FY26, marginally below the 6.3 per cent projected by us for FY25, said Aditi Nayar of Icra

Rate cut as expected; FY26 growth forecast slightly optimistic: Aditi Nayar

Looking ahead, we believe that the growth-inflation outlook suggests that there is room for another 25 bps rate cut in either the April or the June 2025 meetings

RBI Policy Preview: MPC's decision on interest rates hangs by a fine thread

RBI Monetary Policy: With the Union Budget for FY-2026 behind us, the focus now shifts to the next big event on the horizon - the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) final meeting for FY-2025 on Feb 7

Union Budget 2025-26: Fiscal deficit broadly in line with expectations

Revenue spending growth of 6.7 per cent is somewhat higher than our forecast

Economic Survey 2025 suggests deregulation as a trigger for higher growth

We broadly concur with the Survey's assessment of a pick-up in rural demand on the back of improved crop output, disinflation, and an uptick in domestic investment activity

GDP growth likely bottomed out; inflation to prevent December RBI rate cut

The CPI inflation for Q3 FY2025 is expected to overshoot the MPC's estimate of 4.8 per cent for the quarter by at least 60-70 bps

Budget 2024: Fiscal marksmanship on display; over to implementation

On the personal income tax front, the Budget brought in some modest tweaks, which should support sentiment and consumption for salaried individuals

Tax overhaul, populism: ICRA on proposals that Modi 3.0 Budget must avoid

The Union Budget for fiscal 2024-25 (FY25) will be presented on July 23, 2024

Run-up to RBI monetary policy review: Expect another hawkish pause

The surge in the headline CPI inflation has expectedly proved to be transient. The print had cooled off to 6.8 per cent in August 2023 from the 15-month high of 7.4 per cent in July

Eco Survey paints a bright medium-term outlook after an unpredictable year

It says once the global shocks of the pandemic and 2022's unpleasant spike in commodity prices fade away, the Indian economy is likely to record a faster growth during the rest of this decade

MPC rate hikes likely to continue till CPI inflation recedes below 6%

Another rate hike predicted for September 2022, even if the quantum is as small as 10 bps

Ending of rate hikes in US to stem sharp rupee depreciation

With front-loaded rate hikes by the US Fed, the US dollar will remain relatively strong in the immediate term

RBI monetary policy review: Further repo rate hikes clearly on the cards

The Governor's reminder that the repo rate is still below the pre-pandemic level served as a clear signal that more rate hikes lie ahead

RBI's surprise rate hike signals pivot to inflation management completed

The MPC has focused on preventing inflationary expectations from un-anchoring in an increasingly uncertain environment.

RBI monetary policy signals change in stance for June 2022

Next RBI monetary policy stance likely to be followed by shallow rate hike cycle, with the repo rate being increased by 25 bps each in August and September 2022.