Page 4 - Mahesh Vyas

Consumer sentiments improve

The improvement in sentiments during the early months of 2022 essentially reflects an increase in the proportion of households that believe that their current household incomes are better than they we

What do the unemployed do?

The delinking of activities from employment status allows a better understanding of what the unemployed do, or as CPHS informs us, what is the nature of occupation of the unemployed

India's employment challenge

In each of the last three months - October, November and December 2021, the unemployment rate has been at 7 per cent or more

Self-employment increases

People who cannot find acceptable jobs and can become self-employed entrepreneurs indulge themselves but they mostly cannot provide employment to others

Household incomes better, caution prevails

Change in household income is one of the five components of the Index of Consumer Sentiments

Employment could expand in October

The week ended October 17 was remarkable as it saw an increase in the LPR and a simultaneous fall in the unemployment rate

Households cautiously optimistic

The index of consumer sentiments scaled up by a handsome 7.9 per cent in September

Employment increases in rural India

In all the major labour market metrics, it is rural India that shows big improvements. Labour conditions improved in urban India also but not as much as they did in rural India

An incomplete and exhausted recovery

In August 2021, seventeen months after that draconian lockdown of April 2020, employment continues to remain lower than it was in 2019-20

Middle-class rural India holds a promise

Unless a disruption erupts again, rural India seemed poised to help a recovery in consumer demand

Sticky, low consumer sentiments could spoil recovery

The persistence of poor consumer sentiments has ramifications on the sustainability of India's recovery from the sharp fall in 2020-21

Women need a better deal

The literature, say the authors, has focused on supply-side constraints that prevent women from entering the labour markets

Migration from factories to farms, a sign of distress

The government's Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) report shows a sharp increase in employment in agriculture from 42.5% of the total employment in 2018-19 to 45.6% in 2019-20

Employment recovery expected in July

But, the recovery was incomplete because the employment rate, which is the working age population that is employed, never repaired with its pre-Covid levels

Disproportionate fall in urban male jobs

Arguably, urban male jobs are the better quality jobs and their disproportionate loss could imply a greater fall in income than witnessed so far

Subdued sentiments threaten recovery

The index of consumer sentiments fell by 1.5 per cent in June 2021 after having fallen by 10.8 per cent in May and 3.8 per cent in April 2021

Covid leaves a lasting impact

India's problem is less with the unemployment rate and much more with the labour participation rate and the employment rate. The lasting impact of Covid is a much smaller worker participation rate

Mobility is not enough

It is possible that the mobility indices have moved because of the relaxations. Labour participation rates have improved

Early signs of recovery in rural India

Betw­een March and May, consumer sentiments in rural India fell more than twice as much as in urban India

Can the rich help?

The recovery cannot be investments-led because most enterprises are nursing excess capacities