Why India's 2.0 fertility rate does not mean population decline soon

India's fertility rate remained at 2.0 in 2023-24, below replacement level. But that does not mean the population will start shrinking anytime soon. Here's why

India’s total fertility rate (TFR) remained stable at two children per woman in 2023-24, according to National Family Health Survey-6 (NFHS-6) data. The figure keeps India below the widely cited replacement fertility level of 2.1 and reinforces a demographic shift that has been unfolding over decades.

 

But the number is often misunderstood.

 

A TFR of 2.0 does not mean India’s population will immediately begin shrinking. Instead, it means the average number of children per woman is now below the level required for long-term population replacement under current mortality and migration patterns.

 

Experts say India’s latest fertility data reflects a structural transition rather than a temporary slowdown.

 

 

Dr Sabine Kapasi, global health strategist and UN advisor, told Business Standard, “It marks an important demographic shift for India as the country moves from a phase of rapid population growth towards long-term stabilisation.”

 

“India is now part of a wider group of countries that have experienced a sustained decline in fertility as they move through similar stages of development,” she added. 

What is total fertility rate?

 

Total fertility rate measures the average number of children a woman would have during her lifetime if current age-specific fertility rates continued. Put simply, if India’s TFR is 2.0, it means women are having two children on average -- not that every family has exactly two children.

 

India’s fertility transition has happened gradually. NFHS data shows TFR declining from around 3.4 in NFHS-1 in the early 1990s to 2.0 in NFHS-5, with NFHS-6 indicating that fertility levels have broadly remained stable at that level.

 

The urban-rural gap also remains visible. Fertility rates in urban India are lower than in rural areas, although both have steadily declined over time.

 

Why is replacement level 2.1?

 

Replacement fertility refers to the average number of children needed for one generation to replace itself over time. Globally, that benchmark is generally estimated at 2.1 children per woman.

 

The additional 0.1 largely accounts for children who may not survive to reproductive age and natural variations in births across populations. However, replacement levels are not fixed everywhere. They can vary depending on mortality rates and demographic conditions in each country. 

 

Why has fertility fallen in India?

 

India’s fertility decline has not been driven by a single policy intervention but by broader social and economic changes.

 

Dr Kapasi said, “Higher levels of education, particularly among women, have played a key role, along with urbanisation, later marriages and delayed childbirth. Improved access to family planning and a sharp fall in infant mortality have also contributed.”

 

She added that rising aspirations around careers, education and quality of life have encouraged families to choose fewer children and invest more in their upbringing.

 

This transition, however, has not happened evenly across India. Southern and western states have generally moved faster than parts of northern and central India.

 

Dr Sunita Arora from Fortis La Femme, New Delhi, told Business Standard: “Increased female literacy and educational attainment have played a crucial role by delaying marriage and childbearing. Greater participation of women in the workforce has also influenced family size preferences.”

 

“Urbanisation, rising living costs, housing constraints and aspirations for better education and opportunities for children have encouraged smaller families,” she added.

 

Arora said improved access to contraception and reproductive healthcare, along with lower infant and child mortality, has enabled couples to make more informed family-planning choices.

 

If fertility is below replacement, why will India’s population still grow?

 

This is where fertility and population growth begin to diverge. Even when fertility falls below replacement level, population growth does not stop immediately because of population momentum.

 

India still has a very large young population entering reproductive ages. As a result, total births can remain high even if each woman is having fewer children than previous generations.

 

Dr Kapasi explained, “India’s population will continue to grow for several decades due to population momentum. The country still has a very large youth population entering reproductive age, which keeps the number of births high in absolute terms even as family sizes shrink.”

 

Because of this age structure, population growth continues before eventually stabilising and potentially declining later in the century.

 

India’s median age remains relatively low compared with many developed economies, supporting continued demographic expansion.

 

Dr Arora said, “Population momentum is essentially the effect of past high fertility rates creating a large base of young people who contribute to future births. Therefore, India’s population is expected to continue growing before eventually stabilising.” 

Why is India moving at different speeds?

 

India’s fertility transition is increasingly uneven across states. According to NFHS-6 (2023-24), Bihar continued to record the highest fertility rate in the country at 2.7 children per woman, remaining well above the replacement level. It was followed by Jharkhand, Meghalaya and Uttar Pradesh, each reporting a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.2, while Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan recorded a TFR of 2.1 each.

 

At the other end of the spectrum, Sikkim reported the lowest fertility rate among states at 1.0 child per woman, indicating a significantly advanced stage of demographic transition. Arunachal Pradesh followed with a TFR of 1.5, while Assam, Goa, Mizoram, Punjab and West Bengal each recorded a fertility rate of 1.6 children per woman.

 

This means future population growth is likely to become increasingly concentrated in a smaller group of northern and central states, while several southern and western states begin preparing for ageing populations and slower workforce growth.

 

What does this mean for families and policymakers?

 

Lower fertility changes both household decisions and public policy priorities.

 

Families may increasingly spend more on education, healthcare and opportunities for fewer children. At the same time, changing family structures could alter patterns of caregiving, migration and old-age support.

 

For governments, Dr Kapasi said the focus is gradually shifting from population growth to population management. She said policymakers would need to create enough productive employment for a large working-age population to fully realise the demographic dividend.

 

Healthcare systems will also need to adapt to ageing and chronic disease burdens, while pension and social security systems will require strengthening.

 

Dr Arora said, “Policymakers should invest in skill development and employment opportunities to fully utilise the demographic dividend while it lasts. Childcare systems, maternal health services, and educational infrastructure will need to adapt to changing family structures.”

 

India’s fertility rate remaining at 2.0, therefore, is not a sign of immediate population decline. It is a signal that the country’s demographic transition has entered a new phase -- one that will shape jobs, healthcare, ageing and economic growth for decades ahead.