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India is estimated to contribute 6 per cent to global trade growth over the next five years, according to the 'DHL Trade Atlas 2025' report, jointly published by New York University’s Stern School of Business and German logistics brand DHL.
The report, which gives an analysis of trade patterns for nearly 200 countries and territories worldwide, states that India’s share in global trade expansion will follow that of China, which is expected to contribute 12 per cent, and the United States, projected at 10 per cent.
“India also stands out as the country with the third-largest absolute amount of forecast trade growth (6 per cent of additional global trade), behind only China (12 per cent) and the United States (10 per cent),” said the report. It noted that globally, trade growth has continued to show resilience amid geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty.
According to the report, India is expected to retain its third spot on the scale dimension, which it achieved due to "its trade growth was much faster than other large economies." India is also expected to rise to 17th place on the speed dimension metric, up from its current position at 32.
The report highlights that while India was ranked only as the 13th largest participant in international trade in 2024, its trade volume grew at a compound annual rate of 5.2 per cent between 2019 and 2024, significantly outpacing the global trade growth rate of 2.0 per cent during the same period.
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"India's rapid trade growth reflected both its swift macroeconomic growth and its increasing participation in international trade. While China is often viewed as a more trade-oriented economy than India, India’s goods trade-to-GDP ratio was almost as high as China’s in 2023, and India’s trade intensity exceeded China’s when considering trade in both goods and services," the report states.
On future global trade growth leaders, the report states that during the next five years, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are forecasted to rank among the top 30 for both speed and scale of trade growth.
Speaking to news agency ANI, RS Subramanian, SVP South Asia, DHL Express, said, "The Trade Atlas underlines India's rapid expansion in global trade, positioning the country as a critical hub connecting the East and West. While we anticipate trade volume growth and an increase in global trade share, we remain cautiously optimistic about the future given the global economy's general volatility."
Status of India's foreign trade
According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry for March 2025, the cumulative exports (merchandise and services) during April-February 2024-25 are estimated at $750.53 billion, as compared to $706.43 billion in the same period of the previous fiscal - an estimated growth of 6.24 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y). Key drivers of merchandise export growth in February 2025 included electronic goods, rice, mica, coal, and other ores, minerals including processed minerals, readymade garments of all textiles, and coffee.
Trade with key partners such as the US, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, China, Japan, Brazil, and Australia remained significant. The trade deficit for the financial year 2023-24 (FY24) was recorded at $78.12 billion, reduced from $121.6 billion in FY23, according to the Ministry of Finance.
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