NDA 4 short of majority Rajya Sabha after polls; What it means for BJP?

The BJP-led NDA is just four short seats of majority in the Rajya Sabha, the upper House of Parliament

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 10 of the 15 Rajya Sabha seats that went to polls on February 27 amid cross-voting reports in Uttar Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh.

The saffron party won eight out of 10 seats in Uttar Pradesh and one of three in Karnataka. The most surprising result came from Himachal Pradesh when the BJP's Harsh Mahajan won the lone Rajya Sabha seat, defeating the Congress party's Abhishek Manu Singhvi after six rebel Congress members cross-voted.

Apart from the 15 seats that went to polls on February 27, as many as 41 candidates were elected unopposed. Overall, the BJP bagged 30 of the 56 Rajya Sabha seats.

 

The numbers in the Upper House

These victories bring the BJP's total in the Upper House to 97, three less than 100. This also means that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will now have 117 members, four less than the 121 majority mark in the Upper House.

The majority mark in the 245-member Rajya Sabha is 123. However, five seats remain vacant: four in Jammu and Kashmir, which is under the President's Rule, and one in the nominated member category. As a result, the House's strength is lowered to 240, with 121 serving as the majority mark.

This also implies that the BJP remains the single-largest party in the Rajya Sabha, with 97 members, including five nominated members who joined the party, followed by the Congress (29), the Trinamool Congress (13), the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the Aam Aadmi Party (10 each). The Janata Dal (JD) and Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) each have nine Rajya Sabha seats, while the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) has seven, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has six, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] has five, and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] have four members each.

What it means

Given that the Lok Sabha elections are in two months, the NDA is expected to cross the majority mark in 2026 when the next election cycle for the Rajya Sabha takes place. This is significant since the BJP-led NDA has held a complete majority in the Lok Sabha since 2014, allowing for the smooth passage of legislation and amendments. But not in the Rajya Sabha.

Prior to 2019, the Opposition in the Upper House vetoed numerous proposals, including land reform and Triple Talaq. The land reform bill has not been reintroduced; instead, the government approved the anti-Triple Talaq bill during its current second term.

In fact, during the current term, which began in 2019, the Union government was able to pass crucial bills in the Upper House with the support of neutral parties such as Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and YS Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSR Congress.

A minority in the Rajya Sabha would further isolate the Opposition and the Congress.