IMD further lowers 2026 monsoon forecast as El Nino set to develop

Chouhan asks states to be 'prepared'; Centre prepares war chest of extra seeds to meet any eventuality

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has further lowered its 2026 southwest monsoon forecast to 90 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) from the earlier predicted 92 per cent of LPA, signalling that rains are likely to be “below normal” over the country as a whole.

 

The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus 4 per cent. The IMD said rainfall is expected to be below normal due to development of El Nino during the monsoon season, but Indian Ocean Dipole (another factor that impacts Indian monsoon) is expected to be “neutral” during the period.

 

The LPA of seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87 centimetre (cm). It (LPA) refers to the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given period, such as a month or the entire season, averaged over a long period of time, typically 30-50 years.

 

 

In its second-stage forecast, IMD’s prediction showed that no part of the country, barring Northeast India, is expected to get “normal” rainfall this year.

 

What is more worrying is that the IMD has said southwest monsoon over the monsoon core zone, which comprises most of the rain-fed agriculture areas in the country, is most likely to be below normal at less than 94 per cent of the LPA.

 

This could have a damaging impact on production of main pulses and oilseeds, and even sugarcane, as most of the monsoon core zone lies in the central and western parts of India.

 

However, senior government officials, including Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, said that the Centre is well-prepared to meet any eventuality even as he asked state governments to brace for possible low rainfall or other challenging weather conditions in view of El Nino threat and the IMD forecast of a below-normal monsoon this year.

 

“We have made a war chest of 174,000 quintals of seeds, over and above the 1.73 million tonnes (mt) required for kharif season, to meet any exigencies, including resowing of crops and delayed sowing,” Chouhan told reporters while addressing the two-day “Kharif 2026” campaign.

 

The total availability of seeds for kharif 2026 across India is 1.93 mt, significantly higher than the required quantity.

 

Meanwhile, the IMD in its second-stage forecast also said that during June-September 2026, below-normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country, except some areas of Northwest and Northeast India, eastern parts of south peninsula, adjoining areas of east-central India, and isolated pockets of East India, where normal to above-normal rainfall may occur.

 

Not only the whole season, the IMD also said that average rainfall across the country in June, which is the first month of the four-month season, is likely to be below-normal at 92 per cent of the LPA. This could delay sowing of kharif crops, particularly paddy and maize, in most parts of the country.

 

“In June 2026, below-normal monthly rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country, except over some parts of Northwest India, Northeast India, south peninsula, and isolated pockets of central India where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely,” the IMD said.

 

On temperatures, the Met department said that “above-normal” maximum temperatures are likely in June 2026 over most parts of the country, except some parts of central, Northwest, and East India, where normal to below normal maximum temperatures are very likely.

 

The onset of monsoon, which was predicted for May 26, is now expected to be around June 1, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.