Nuvama retains 'Hold' on Cipla, raises target after Eli Lilly diabetes deal

Cipla- Eli Lilly deal: Tirzepatide is a prescription drug used for managing type 2 diabetes and aiding weight loss in adults who are obese or overweight.

Nuvama on Cipla: Pharmaceutical company Cipla Ltd has entered into a distribution and promotion agreement with Eli Lilly for tirzepatide, a breakthrough dual GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist, to be launched in India under a new brand name ‘Yurpeak’. The move marks Cipla’s entry into the fast-growing obesity and diabetes drug market.

 

Tirzepatide is a prescription drug used for managing type 2 diabetes and aiding weight loss in adults who are obese or overweight.

Nuvama retains ‘HOLD’, raises target to ₹1,725

 

Brokerage Nuvama Institutional Equities (Nuvama) has maintained a ‘Hold’ rating on Cipla stock but raised its target price to ₹1,725 from ₹1,651 earlier, on the back of incremental earnings potential from the Yurpeak launch and Cipla’s early positioning in the GLP-1 space.

 

 

The brokerage expects revenues of ₹360 crore in FY26E and ₹370 crore in FY27E from Yurpeak, in addition to ₹410 crore from the generic semaglutide opportunity in FY27E. These contributions could lift revenue and profit after tax (PAT) by 1 per cent each in FY26E and by 4 per cent and 3 per cent respectively in FY27E, leading to a ~3 pe cent upgrade in FY27 earnings per share (EPS).

 

Analysts at Nuvama believe Cipla’s large chronic therapy portfolio, deep distribution network, and strong field presence will help it establish a meaningful foothold in India’s nascent GLP-1 market. While near-term financial impact remains limited, analysts view the deal as a strategic positive that enhances Cipla’s long-term growth outlook in metabolic care.

‘Yurpeak’ launch expands access to GLP-1 therapy

 

Under the agreement, Eli Lilly will manufacture and supply the Yurpeak KwikPen, a single-patient prefilled pen in six dosage strengths ranging from 2.5 mg to 15 mg. The once-weekly injection will be priced on par with Mounjaro, in the range of ₹13,000-₹26,000 per month.

 

This partnership expands the availability of tirzepatide beyond metros where Eli Lilly already has presence, leveraging Cipla’s reach to improve access across India. The deal gives Cipla early exposure to a rapidly expanding GLP-1 segment, which is seeing strong uptake globally and domestically.

India’s obesity and diabetes market ripe for growth

 

India’s obesity and diabetes burden is among the highest globally, with 90-100 million obese adults and over 100 million diabetic patients, many inadequately treated. The GLP-1 segment is emerging as one of the most lucrative therapy areas in the Indian market.

 

Novo Nordisk’s Rybelsus (oral semaglutide), launched in 2022, and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro, introduced in March 2025, have seen rapid adoption. Mounjaro alone has crossed ₹100 crore in monthly sales over the past two months, reflecting strong demand.

Strategic head start in an underpenetrated market

 

With GLP-1 therapies currently reaching only 0.2-0.3 per cent of the potential urban patient base, Cipla’s entry through Yurpeak gives it a head start in an underpenetrated, high-value market. The company stands to benefit from growing obesity awareness, improved affordability, and the upcoming wave of generic GLP-1 launches.

 

While the financial gains from Yurpeak may be modest initially, the collaboration with Eli Lilly strengthens Cipla’s position in the chronic and metabolic care segment, setting the stage for long-term value creation.