Delimitation row: Can women's quota change political power dynamics?

The women's reservation law mandates one-third seats for women but awaits implementation which is to be done after the delimitation process

As India gears up for its first delimitation exercise since 2002, most of the focus has been on the looming redistribution of Lok Sabha seats between the north and the south. With the freeze on seat allocations set to be lifted in 2026, projections indicate that Uttar Pradesh could gain over 60 seats, while Tamil Nadu and Kerala may see little or no increase—or even a loss of representation. The political arguments are familiar: southern states fear being penalised for their development efforts, while northern states advocate representation proportional to current population figures.

 

Yet beneath this highly visible north-south tug-of-war lies a more transformative—and largely overlooked—force: Women’s reservation.

 

 

The 106th Constitutional Amendment, passed in 2023, mandates that one-third of the total seats in the Lok Sabha, state legislatures, and the National Capital Territory be reserved for women. However, its implementation hinges on the completion of the delimitation process. Once the new electoral map is redrawn, women’s reservation could reshape Indian politics in ways far more profound than a mere population-based seat reshuffle.

 

How could reservation reshape traditional seat dynamics?

 

Political representation in India has long been driven by caste equations, family strongholds, and entrenched power structures. Delimitation typically rearranges the political board—but with women’s reservation in the mix, the implications could be deeper.

 

Every state, regardless of seat gains or losses, will need to reserve one-third of its constituencies for women. This realignment will not just change numbers—it could dismantle existing bastions of power.

 

In states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where political dynasties are deeply rooted, this could mean powerful male leaders losing their traditional seats. Political parties may need to rethink strategies and recalibrate local leadership. In contrast, states like West Bengal and Tamil Nadu—with prominent women leaders like Mamata Banerjee and the late Jayalalithaa—may adapt more seamlessly to this change.

 

Will it impact southern states’ seat anxiety?

 

The dominant flashpoint in the 2026 delimitation narrative has been the concern among southern states.

 

India’s population distribution has shifted over the decades. States like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have experienced higher growth, while Tamil Nadu and Kerala implemented family planning early, resulting in slower growth. As a result, populous states remain underrepresented in Parliament, while those with lower populations retain a disproportionately high number of seats.

 

This discrepancy challenges constitutional principles such as ‘one person, one vote, one value’ and raises concerns around federal equity. Tamil Nadu, for instance, elects 39 Lok Sabha members, whereas Uttar Pradesh, with nearly three times the population, sends only 80.

 

Projections suggest that if the Lok Sabha expands to 753 seats, the southern states’ combined share could drop to 19 per cent. In this scenario, Tamil Nadu would hold 41 seats, Kerala 19, Telangana 20, Andhra Pradesh 28, and Karnataka 36.

 

Meanwhile, northern states are expected to gain significantly: Uttar Pradesh may rise from 80 to 128 seats, Bihar from 40 to 70, Madhya Pradesh from 29 to 47, Maharashtra from 48 to 68, and Rajasthan from 25 to 44.

 

Southern leaders have expressed alarm. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin recently described delimitation as “a sword hanging over South India”, arguing that states which effectively curbed population growth should not be punished with reduced representation. The Union government has assured that southern states will not lose seats—but scepticism persists.

 

Can women’s reservation shift the narrative?

 

Amid these fears, women’s reservation could prove a game-changer.

 

Though southern states may lose out numerically in absolute seats, the introduction of one-third reserved constituencies for women could offer an alternate path to political influence. The reservation law may strengthen the political presence of women in states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka, allowing them to rebuild or expand influence through a new leadership base.

 

At the same time, northern states that are set to gain seats—like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar—may also face new internal dynamics. Many long-established male politicians could be edged out as new constituencies are reserved for women, forcing a shift in political representation.

 

The 2026 delimitation debate has largely been framed as a north versus south contest. But experts argue that the women’s quota may quietly usher in one of the most significant political realignments in decades—challenging not only regional balance but also entrenched power hierarchies across India.