Crude oil Outlook: WTI to trade $57-$62/bbl near-term, with upside to $65+ on Russian disruptions. Bearish base case holds unless geopolitics escalate.
Oil prices are projected to trade in a broader $58-$64 range in the coming weeks
While Reliance's typical diet does include crude from the region, the recent spurt of buying was more active than usual
Crude oil prices continue to trade within a broader range of $5-$7, reflecting the persistent tug-of-war between supply excess and geopolitical flare-ups
Brent crude faces limited upside above $70, as higher prices may dampen Chinese demand, while increased OPEC+ production is helping offset geopolitical risks
India has leaned on the US and UAE to boost spot purchases of crude oil this year to cover immediate needs and navigate geopolitical tensions
India became a major importer of Russian crude after the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, but the South Asian nation was recently slapped with crushing US tariffs for the trade
India defended its Russian oil imports, saying it followed international rules and helped keep global prices stable, rejecting US claims that it fueled the Russian war effort
US President Donald Trump criticised a court ruling that struck down most of his tariff orders, warning that US would be 'completely destroyed' without them, while one judge defended his stance
Reliance warns of refining margin pressure as US doubles tariffs on Indian goods to 50 per cent over Russian oil imports; 25 per cent came into effect on Thursday, second 25 per cent begins August 27
The US imposes 25 per cent tariff on Indian imports from August 7; second 25 per cent duty over Russian oil trade kicks in August 27, raising total tariff to 50 per cent - highest among US partners
India's top refiner IOC buys 7 million barrels of crude from US, Canada and Abu Dhabi via tender, as Russian oil imports pause due to narrowing discounts and rising sanctions
Despite Donald Trump's warning of a penalty, Indian officials say the government had "not given any direction to oil companies" to cut back imports from Russia
Amid tariff threats and narrowing price gaps, India's oil firms have paused Russian crude orders; MEA says no official directive
Crude oil markets are pricing in a fair amount of uncertainty at the current levels, Das said. That's why oil had dropped below $60 for a time-before the West Asia tensions pushed it back up
The fears centre around the possibility of supply routes being interdicted and hence, supply being disrupted, rather than Iranian oil being taken off the market
India has enough crude reserves and is boosting imports from other sources even as the Strait of Hormuz faces risk of disruption due to the escalating Iran-Israel conflict
The attacks, according to analysts at Rabobank International, expose wider risks to crude and natural gas supplies from the region despite the initial quick reversal of price gains for both markets
Oil prices have declined 17 per cent for the year-to-date with April marking 18 per cent fall, the biggest monthly drop in prices since November 2021
Indian Oil Corporation had a term deal with Russia, which expired in March 2023 and has not been renewed since