Page 4 - Fitch Ratings

Fitch raises India's growth estimates for FY25 to 7.2% as investments rise

Fitch Ratings on Tuesday raised India's growth forecast for current fiscal to 7.2 per cent, from 7 per cent projected in March, citing a recovery in consumer spending and increased investment. For the fiscal years 2025-26 and 2026-27, Fitch projected growth rates of 6.5 per cent and 6.2 per cent, respectively. "We expect the Indian economy to expand by a strong 7.2 per cent in FY24/25 (an upward revision of 0.2 pp from the March GEO)," Fitch said in its global economic outlook report. Fitch's estimates are in line with that of RBI which earlier this month projected Indian economy to expand 7.2 per cent in the current fiscal on the back of improving rural demand and moderating inflation. Investment will continue to rise but more slowly than in recent quarters, while consumer spending will recover with elevated consumer confidence, it said. Fitch said purchasing managers survey data point to continued growth at the start of the current financial year. It said signs of the coming mo

Fitch ups 2024 world growth forecast to 2.6%; cautions on inflation

However, for 2025, Fitch expects world growth to edge down to 2.4 per cent as US growth slows to a below-trend rate of 1.5 per cent and growth in the Eurozone picks up to 1.5 per cent

Coalition, weak mandate may hinder passing ambitious reforms: Fitch

As the NDA is all set to form the government, Fitch Ratings on Thursday said coalition politics and a weakened mandate could make it challenging to pass legislations on ambitious reforms. "We believe major reforms to land and labour laws will remain on the new government's agenda as it seeks to enhance India's manufacturing sector, but these have long been contentious and the NDA's weaker mandate will complicate their passage further. This could reduce the potential upside to India's medium-term growth prospects," Fitch said in a statement. The BJP fell short of a single-party majority in the 543-seat lower house of parliament for the first time since its latest period in government that began in 2014. But Fitch expects it to secure enough support from allied parties in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to form a government with Narendra Modi remaining Prime Minister. The outcome should support broad policy continuity, with the government continuing to prioritise infrastructur

Passing major reforms may prove difficult for next govt: Rating agencies

Rating agencies, such as Fitch and Moody's, said broad policy continuity may persist

Weak majority for BJP poses challenges to reform agenda, says Fitch

The BJP losing its outright majority and relying on allies to form a government could pose challenges for the more ambitious elements of reform agenda like land and labour, Fitch Ratings said in a note on Wednesday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP lost its majority for the first time since 2014, winning 240 seats in the 543-seat Lok Sabha. It plans to form a government with smaller parties in his National Democratic Alliance, which won another 52 seats, giving the alliance a 292-seat majority. "It appears the BJP-led NDA is likely to form the next government, returning Prime Minister Modi for a third term, but with a weakened majority that could pose challenges for the more ambitious elements of the government's reform agenda," Fitch said. As the BJP fell short of an outright majority and will need to rely more heavily on its coalition partners, "passing contentious reforms could prove more difficult, particularly around land and labour, which have recently been flagged as ...

Fitch lowers Boeing 2024 aircraft delivery, free cash flow forecasts

The rating agency forecasts from 350 to 370 737 MAX deliveries and about 65-70 787 deliveries in 2024, below previous expectations of about 400 and 75, respectively

Fitch changes Softbank-backed Oyo's long-term rating from 'B-' to 'B'

Oyo had around $100 million in cash at end-March 2024, a committed undrawn facility of $25 million, and Fitch expects the company to generate about $50 million in free cash flow in FY25

Sustained fiscal deficit reduction positive for India's ratings: Fitch

Fitch Ratings said in a press statement that this dividend would help India in meeting the fiscal deficit target of 5.1 per cent of GDP for FY25

Record RBI dividend at 0.6% of GDP may not be sustained, says Fitch

Fitch said an important driver of higher RBI profits appears to be higher interest revenue on foreign assets, though the central bank has not yet provided a detailed breakdown

RBI action could increase business volatility for some NBFCs: Fitch

Firms' implementation of regulatory instructions varies, says ratings agency

Banks' underwriting standards at risk amid consumer loan growth: Fitch

Fitch Ratings on Monday said Indian banks' risk appetite through higher loan growth will remain a key consideration for their creditworthiness despite improved financial performance. It said asset quality pressures from the previous credit cycle are subsiding, creating a favourable business environment. This has bolstered banks' potential and appetite for growth. Bank loans grew by 16 per cent in the financial year ended March 2024, similar to FY23, exceeding the 8 per cent CAGR (compound annual growth rate) over FY15-FY22. Retail loans constitute around 10 per cent of system loans, and grew at a 20 per cent CAGR since FY21, fuelled by a shift towards unsecured credit to expand margins, the US-based rating firm said. Large private banks gained significant market share in the last credit cycle and continue to grow rapidly; state banks also returned to brisk growth but lagged large private banks, Fitch said in a report titled 'Risk profile weighs on Indian banks' viability ratings ..

Fitch affirms ratings of Axis, ICICI banks on supportive working conditions

Fitch Ratings on Thursday affirmed the ratings of Axis Bank and ICICI Bank with a stable outlook citing supportive operating environment and large domestic franchise. Fitch Ratings has affirmed India-based Axis Bank and ICICI Bank's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB+', the global agency said in two separate rating commentaries. Fitch has also affirmed the banks' Government Support Rating (GSR) at 'bb+' and Viability Rating (VR) at 'bb'. Fitch said its IDR ratings reflect expectation of a moderate probability of extraordinary state support from the government relative to large state banks. The agency said its expectation of a supportive operative environment is on account of India's robust medium-term growth potential. Fitch expects GDP growth of 7 per cent in 2024 and 6.5 per cent in 2025, supported by investment prospects. "The economy has been resilient as healthy business sentiment, steady financial markets and the government's capital spending buffered global econom

Indian Rupee likely to rebound to 82 per dollar on bond inflows: Fitch

The rupee is expected to appreciate to 82 per dollar by the year-end, from about 83.50 currently, said Jeremy Zook who is a director at Fitch in Hong Kong

Fitch downgrades China outlook to negative on economic growth risks

China's factory output and retail sales topped forecasts in January-February, joining better-than-expected exports and consumer inflation indicators, providing an early boost to Beijing's hopes

China rejects Fitch's ratings of its fiscal outlook, says economy 'stable'

China's Finance Ministry denounced a report by Fitch Ratings that kept its sovereign debt rated at A+ but downgraded its outlook to negative, saying Wednesday that China's deficit is at a moderate and reasonable level and risks are under control. Risks to China's public finances are rising, Fitch said, as Beijing works to resolve mounting local and regional government debts and to shift away from heavy reliance on its troubled property industry to drive economic growth. But while slower growth is adding to the challenges of coping with heavy borrowing, Fitch said it kept China's A+ rating due to its large and diversified economy, its vital role in global trade and its huge foreign exchange reserves. The Finance Ministry said it was a pity that Fitch had downgraded its sovereign debt and faulted its methods, saying it had failed to take into account Beijing's moves toward appropriately intensifying, improving quality and efficiency of its government spending. In the long run, ...

IIFL Finance hits lowest level since Oct' 22; stock tanks 42% in 2 weeks

Multiple rating agencies including Fitch Ratings, Brickwork Ratings India, CRISIL Ratings, Care Ratings, and Icra have revised their ratings on IIFL Finance

Fitch Ratings ups GDP growth forecast to 7% for FY25 on demand push

It expects 50 bps rate cut by RBI in the second half of 2024

After RBI restriction, Fitch puts IIFL Finance on negative rating watch

"The move reflects a downside risk to IIFL Finance's franchise, profitability and overall risk profile if regulatory restrictions on new gold-backed lending are prolonged," Fitch said in a note

Fitch raises GDP growth estimates for FY24, FY25, tempers view on rate cuts

The RBI has kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% for the last six consecutive meetings and has reiterated its commitment to reaching the 4% inflation target on a sustainable basis

Fitch upgrades Turkey's sovereign rating to B+ on tighter monetary policies

"Upgrade reflects increased confidence in the durability and effectiveness of policies implemented since the pivot in June 2023," Fitch said