Page 3 - Indian Economy

Fitch cuts India's FY27 GDP forecast to 6.4%, warns of US-Iran war impact

Fitch Ratings on Tuesday lowered its GDP growth projections for the current fiscal to 6.4 per cent from the earlier estimate of 6.7 per cent, saying that the US-Iran war will slow down the economy in the September and December quarters. Fitch said it expects a slowdown in economic growth in FY27 from the 7.4 per cent clocked in FY26 as rising prices erode real incomes and dampen consumer spending, amid a resilient capital expenditure. "We expect GDP growth to ease to 6.4 per cent in FY27, a downward revision of 0.3pp from March. Domestic demand will be the main driver of growth, but lower imports in real terms imply positive contributions to growth from net external demand," Fitch Ratings said in its June Global Economic Outlook. Last week, the RBI had cut its growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.6 per cent and upped its inflation projection to 5.1 per cent. The rating agency said the slowdown in the economy will be most apparent in the second and third quarter of FY27, as

Capital flows can support the rupee, but exports must sustain its strength

Tax breaks and RBI measures may attract foreign funds and support the rupee, but lasting currency strength depends on exports, FDI and competitiveness

A growth surprise: Healthy Q4 GDP print lends cushion amid hazy outlook

India's economy grew 7.8% in Q4 FY26, beating forecasts, but risks from the West Asia crisis, higher oil prices and a weak monsoon cloud the outlook

Monetary policy: RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra's optimism and caution

RBI sees India's economy as resilient, but warns that geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, inflation risks and a weak monsoon could test growth

India's GDP grows 7.8% in Q4 FY26 despite ongoing West Asia crisis

Full-year GDP growth pegged at 7.7%

How India can halt capital flight as trade deficit widens, rupee falls

With the rupee nearing the psychologically important 100-per-dollar mark, RBI Guv Malhotra and PM Modi may need to raise interest rates and offer targeted tax incentives to stem capital outflows

'India's fiscal deficit may rise to 4.7% of GDP in FY27 amid West Asia war'

India's fiscal deficit may widen to 4.7 per cent of GDP in FY27 as higher oil prices, subsidy costs and revenue risks from the West Asia conflict weigh on finances, writes Aditi Nayar of ICRA

Policy complexity: RBI MPC will have to reckon with several moving parts

With oil prices elevated and monsoon risks looming, the RBI is expected to hold rates steady while reassessing inflation and growth forecasts

India set to bargain hard in trade negotiations with US, UK this week

Trade agreements with the US and the UK could help cushion some of the headwinds while attracting foreign investment at a time when the rupee is under great pressure

Manufacturing PMI rises to 3-month high in May as demand stays firm

Manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in 3 months in May, supported by stronger domestic demand, while input cost inflation remained elevated amid continued geopolitical uncertainties

Manufacturing PMI hits 3-month high of 55.0 in May on resilient demand

Input cost inflation remained among the strongest seen in the past four years, driven by higher energy, fuel, material, and transportation costs amid the ongoing conflict in West Asia

FinMin calls for policy agility as economy shows 'cautious resilience'

The finance ministry on Saturday said strong domestic fundamentals support growth, but rising oil prices, a weaker monsoon and global uncertainty warrant continued policy vigilance

Iran deal may ease oil stress, but won't plug India's capital or AI gaps

While stabilising the currency may help contain the current crisis, India's ability to attract global capital will remain muted

How extreme summers are starting to weigh on India's economic growth

Longer and more intense heatwaves are affecting jobs, farm output, electricity demand and health costs, raising concerns that India may be underestimating their economic impact

Weekly policy watch: Forex reserves, deposits, Marco Rubio visit in focus

India's policy focus this week will be on forex reserves, banking deposit growth and high-level India-US talks amid global uncertainty and trade concerns

Best of BS Opinion: RBI's surplus transfer will not ease fiscal pressure

Hello and welcome to BS Opinion, a wrap of editorials and columns on today's Opinion page.

Earnings growth matters more than valuation multiple: Anish Tawakley

Earnings growth matters more than PE compression in long-term wealth creation, says DSP MF CIO

A big push in economics: Special times call for special initiatives

The last time the domestic private sector achieved a one-year gain of net fixed assets above 20 per cent in nominal terms was 2009-10

Manufacturing drags down India's private sector activity in May: Flash PMI

India's pvt sector activity remained firmly in expansion territory in May, though growth in new orders, exports, employment and business activity softened marginally, HSBC's flash PMI survey showed

IMF backs targeted relief over broad subsidies amid oil price surge

The multilateral institution has urged governments to avoid broad-based subsidies and instead adopt targeted fiscal measures to manage inflation and protect vulnerable households