Page 3 - Indian Economy

India's growth to slow to 6.7% on waning momentum, oil price shock: BMI

India's economic growth is likely to decelerate to 6.7 per cent in the current fiscal, from 7.7 per cent in 2025-26, with the GDP expansion expected to slow significantly due to waning momentum and oil price shock from Iran war, BMI said on Monday. BMI, a Fitch Group firm, also said that the prospect of the Iran-US conflict escalating in scope presents downside risk to its growth outlook and India must balance spending needs on defence and fuel price stabilisation against fiscal consolidation agenda. The tax reforms in GST and income tax carried out in 2025 will partly offset effects of cost-push inflation, BMI said, adding looser monetary policy will support capital spending, as increased uncertainty amid the war and higher input prices hurt investment. BMI estimates that India's economy grew 8 per cent y-o-y in the January-March quarter of 2026, faster than its original 7.8 per cent projection. It has revised its growth forecast for 2025-26 upwards by 0.1 percentage points to 7.7

Statsguru: Big welfare promises confront strained state economies

Welfare promises dominate politics even as several states face rising fiscal stress and uneven economic capacity

Odisha pitches east coast-led growth as India's next economic engine

Odisha Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi urged industries to back east coast-led growth, positioning the state as a future manufacturing and logistics hub

Why Moody’s says India is the world’s most resilient emerging market

India stands out as the most resilient emerging market since 2020, says Moody’s. Strong forex reserves and stable policies helped it weather global shocks—but rising debt and oil risks

Revamped NITI Aayog, PMEAC can aid in deciphering state of India's economy

It is time the country had access to a larger and a more varied range of assessments of the Indian economy

Best of BS Opinion: Government must expedite board appointments at PSBs

Today's Opinion wrap tracks RBI's bank board concerns, India's satellite strides, gaps in economic guidance, China's consumption debate, and a memoir on rural farming journeys

India most resilient emerging mkt, better placed to manage shocks: Moody's

India has been the most resilient large emerging market economy since 2020, and its sizeable forex reserves have helped check currency volatility and reinforce confidence during global shocks, Moody's Ratings said on Tuesday. In a report on emerging market, Moody's said India is well placed to manage future shocks because monetary policy frameworks are clear and predictable, inflation expectations are well anchored, and exchange rates can adjust when needed. Stating that India is "better placed" among emerging market sovereigns to manage future global shock, Moody's said the country would also enter any future periods of stress with strong and accessible buffers. "India's reliance on domestic funding is balanced by deep local markets and sizeable reserves ... Nevertheless, India's relatively high debt burden and weak fiscal balance limit the amount of space available to respond to successive shocks," Moody's added. It said India had made key policy choices that support stability we

India is the third-largest economy in the world in real terms

PPP-based estimates show India as the world's third-largest economy, highlighting how currency distortions mask real purchasing power, domestic demand strength, and global economic influence

Manufacturing PMI rises to 54.7 in April, cost pressure hits 44-month high

The reading remained above 50, which denotes expansion in activity, while a reading below that signifies contraction

Economic security in an insecure world needs revamped risk architecture

What's needed is a revamped economic architecture predicated on proactive risk management and improved shock absorption

West Asia war impact managed well, but some concerns remain: Madan Sabnavis

More importantly, the inflation has been kept under control as of now with the government absorbing a large part of the crude oil cost increase.

Prolonged West Asia shock raises stagflation risks for India's economy

The most visible difference will be on the balance of payments front

In open letter to PM, Bernstein flags structural risks to India's growth

Global brokerage Bernstein cautions India may under-deliver on growth potential without reforms, flagging risks from AI disruption, weak manufacturing gains and rising welfare spending

Riding out the West Asia storm: Testing India's economic resilience

Against this backdrop, the latest IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook still marks India out as an outlier of strength. India's FY27 growth forecast has been revised upward to 6.5 per cent

India likely to breach budgeted fiscal deficit target for FY27: BMI

India's fiscal deficit is likely to breach the budgeted target for current fiscal and hit 4.5 per cent of GDP as the government's policy response to the West Asia conflict could strain public finances, research firm BMI said on Wednesday. The government in 2026-27 Budget had projected a 4.3 per cent fiscal deficit, a tad lower than 4.4 per cent as per revised estimates for 2025-26. BMI also expects the government to introduce policies to redirect critical inputs to key industries, restrain business costs and improve financial support for firms. BMI said it also expects the government to consider restrictions on exports of scarce inputs such as helium and sulphur -- used for producing semiconductor chips. It said that since sulphur is also an important ingredient for making fertilisers, the government will strive to minimise disruptions to the agriculture sector, which employs 43 per cent of India's workforce. The government will seek to restrain cost increases for businesses affec

India's economy projected to grow at 6.4% in 2026, 6.6% in 2027: UN report

India's economy is projected to grow at 6.4 per cent this year and 6.6 per cent in 2027, according to a report by the United Nations. The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) said in the report released Monday that economies in South and South-West Asia grew by 5.4% in 2025, compared to 5.2% in 2024, driven largely by strong growth in India. India's growth edged up to 7.4% in 2025, "supported by robust consumption, especially from the rural economy along with goods and services tax rate cuts, and export frontloading ahead of the United States' tariffs," the report, titled Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2026, said. It said in India, economic activities moderated in the second half of 2025 as exports to the United States declined by 25 per cent following the introduction of 50 per cent tariffs in August 2025. The services sector remained a key growth driver. The report projected India to register a 6.4 per cent growth rate

'Iran war may be as disruptive for India as Covid; long-term impact likely'

Although the government is sticking to its forecasts of 6.8 per cent-7.2 per cent for the fiscal year through March 2027, several economists have already started to downgrade their projections

Datanomics: Rupee weakens, Indian economy slips to sixth-largest

India's GDP in domestic currency terms records a CAGR of 8.56 per cent between 2021 and 2025, reflecting highest economic growth among major economies

IMF lifts India FY27 growth to 6.5% as lower US tariffs offset risks

IMF has raised India's FY27 growth forecast to 6.5 per cent, saying lower US tariffs could offset the impact of West Asia tensions even as global growth and trade outlook weaken

Old narratives, new findings & future implications in revised GDP estimates

Limited fiscal room and weak household finances may keep real GDP growth subdued