"the unanimous feedback has been that there has been a decline in the total loan book under moratorium from the 25-30% numbers reported as of end-May," analysts led by Suresh Ganapathy wrote in a note
Credit costs could touch Rs 2.7 trillion
Senior SBI executives said most of those seeking deferment are retail and micro and small enterprises and are hard-pressed for resources when earning and cash flows have almost dried up.
The only way to save the financial system and the economy is the Reserve Bank relaxing banks' asset classification norms
In its bid to boost retail credit flow, the RBI on February 6 announced that incremental loans towards automobile purchases, residential housing and loans to MSMEs will be set against the mandatory ca
During this fiscal, some growth momentum is expected in the fourth quarter, after subdued three quarters due to traditional fiscal year ending growth
The RBI has also estimated a dip in stress at its bi-yearly stability report in December
Apart from this, the regulatory and legislative measures taken by the government in the past few years have propelled growth in low-cost housing loans
Private-sector banks have a larger exposure to retail loans and may be more at risk
Financial stress among rural households and sluggish job creation are among the key drivers of the slowdown
Retail loans being the fastest growing segment in the last five years may be no exception
Move to cover fresh retail, MSME loans from Oct 1; home, auto loans to get cheaper
The private sector lender to lean on two segments of the business, namely consumer loans and mortgages
Besides recent corporate slippages, slowdown would impact unsecured retail loans, farm and micro finance loans, commercial real estate and NBFCs and poorly-rated corporates with risk of downgrades
In FY19, NBFCs had a 30% share in outstanding retail loans, while public sector lenders had a 39% share and private banks had 26%
While the pace of growth of retail loans has slowed, the demand for credit products has accelerated due to factors like rising consumerism and the impact of demonetisation.
What the data indicates is that banks are slowly restoring their confidence on the industry sector
While retail NPAs aren't a threat just yet, analysts advise investors to be cautious on this segment
Banks are not happy with RBI's micromanagement, but it's essential when even a free market doesn't ensure competition
Banks are to link retail loans to external benchmarks; finance companies may be next