Page 12 - Trade

Trump tariff shadow looms over FY26 growth outlook of IT cos, say experts

Rising global uncertainty and fear of slowdown in its biggest market, the US, is seen taking a toll on the Indian IT industry's showing, with several analysts now warning that a possibly weak exit for the just-ended FY25 may be followed by an "unexciting guidance" or outlook pullbacks for FY26 as well as pain up ahead in verticals such as retail and manufacturing. Discretionary spends, they say, would most likely come under cloud, again, dashing any hopes of its near-term recovery. Market watchers further warn that the next 3-6 months could see a build up of negative news -- including earnings cuts and potential pullbacks in FY26 guidance. Retail and manufacturing verticals are being called out by industry pundits as particularly vulnerable, amid global aftershocks, and market carnage. That said, some believe that "survival spend" may come into focus, as also GenAI. While near-term prospects remain muted, outlook could turn favourable in the second half of FY26, driven by macro ...

Trump tariffs: Govt sets up working group to monitor possible import surge

The commerce ministry is stepping up efforts to help exporters explore new markets to push outbound shipments while also setting up a working group to monitor possible surge in imports from countries like China to tackle the impact of sweeping tariffs announced by the US, source said. The ministry is also fast-tracking formulation of its export promotion mission to support exporters in areas such as providing credit at affordable rates; and negotiations of proposed free trade agreements with the European Union, Oman, New Zealand and the UK. Additionally, concerned officials have been directed to hold a series of bilateral meetings with the identified 20 countries such as Australia, Brazil, China, and France for pushing India's exports. These developments come at a time when exporters and industries have raised concerns that the additional 26 per cent import duty imposed by the US on India may hurt them. The identified 20 countries are Australia, Brazil, Bangladesh, China, France, .

Spiralling downwards: Govt must make careful moves on trade talks

Beijing can perhaps take the risk of a strong line because it is now less dependent on direct exports to the US than it has been in the past

US buyers rethink India orders as Trump's reciprocal tariff woes bite

Buyers are reassessing existing orders, with some seeking discounts. They are also exploring the best possible sources for imports, given the varied but steep reciprocal tariffs, exporters said

US tariffs: Exporters must be ready to prove origin of goods to Customs

Rules of origin (RoO) are used by most countries to implement measures such as anti-dumping duties and anti-subsidy countervailing duties

India may emerge as low-tariff hub for US-bound consumer durable exports

Electronics makers begin talks with US importers; Dixon, Super Plastronics see opportunity

How US levy could play out: Export tariff rates before and after April 9

EY analyses how the US move would pan out across sectors in India

An unavoidable product of democracy: Trump tariffs ignore economic theory

The hallmark of the populist has always been the willingness to risk it all in service of his personal ambition and national honour

Higher US tariffs on rival manufacturing hubs can benefit India: MAIT

The 26 per cent tariffs imposed by the US on India may create some headwinds, but relatively higher levies on competing nations may hand India an edge, tilting the scales in its favour and increasing its appeal in global supply chains, according to electronics and IT hardware industry body MAIT. Manufacturing hubs such as China face a 54 per cent levy, Vietnam (46 per cent), and Thailand (36 per cent) as a result of the US' sweeping tariff actions, which have since spooked financial markets and trade partners. India's USD 7-billion smartphone exports to the US may face some pressure due to evolving trade policies, but the real advantage lies in the comparative tariffs imposed on competing nations, Manufacturers Association for Information Technology (MAIT) said. "While US trade barriers could theoretically dampen India's export volumes, the higher reciprocal tariffs on China and Vietnam create a relative advantage for Indian manufacturers. This discrepancy tilts the scales in India'

US tariffs to have small, indirect impact on India: NITI member Virmani

The US reciprocal tariffs will have a small indirect effect on India given the domestic economy's low dependence on foreign trade, NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani said on Friday. He further said that in the medium term, the negative factors emanating from the imposition of tariff would be minimised with the implementation of the first phase of the proposed USA-India Bilateral Trade Agreement. In the long term, the eminent economist said the final BTA with US will aim to enhance the potential gains during the next 5 to 10 years. The US has announced 26 per cent reciprocal tariffs on India saying New Delhi imposes high import duties on American goods. "This (26 per reciprocal tariffs) will have a small indirect effect on India given our low trade dependence," he said. Virmani explained that the reciprocal tariffs are calculated by a formula which includes US trade deficit with a country and imports from that country. He said every country is however feeling the effect of increased

A global setback: India must adjust swiftly to Trump's reciprocal tariffs

India will need to adjust swiftly to reciprocal tariffs

Mixed bag for India as US President Donald Trump unleashes tariff war

27% US levy on Indian goods threatens biggest export market; could dent domestic GDP growth by 30-50 basis points in FY26

US tariffs: Calls grow louder for PLI push to mitigate looming trade risks

US President Donald Trump has announced reciprocal tariffs of 27 per cent on imports from India effective April 9

US reciprocal tariffs: Exporters flag concerns of dumping from China

Till now, American buyers were already keeping their orders on hold owing to the lack of clarity on reciprocal tariffs

Trump's tariffs are India's opportunity to boost Viksit@2047 goals

It is quite clear that this announcement is only the beginning, and the US will impose tariffs across the board, without discriminating between its friends and not-so-good friends

Merchandise exports may fall slightly to $435 billion in FY25: GTRI

The country's merchandise exports, which have been contracting since October last year, are expected to decline slightly by the end of this fiscal year and fall below USD 435 billion, think tank GTRI said on Sunday. Exports dipped 10.85 per cent in February to USD 36.91 billion due to volatility in petroleum prices and global uncertainties. "At this rate, India's total merchandise exports for FY'2025 are expected to be below USD 435 billion, slightly lower than USD 437.1 billion in FY'2024," Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) Founder Ajay Srivastava said. During April-February 2024-25, the exports stood at USD 395.63 billion as against USD 395.38 billion in the corresponding period of 2023-24. Key sectors that recorded negative growth both in February and cumulatively include petroleum products, gems and jewellery, ceramic products and glassware, oil seeds, oil meals, and iron ore. These sectors are facing consistent declines, indicating the need for strategic interventions t

Trump tariffs: India needs short- and medium-term agricultural trade plans

From 2022 to 2024, India earned $5.75 bn per year from agri-export to the US, which constituted one-tenth of India's agri exports to the world. In the same period, India imported agricultural product

Data localisation norms a key sticking point in India-US BTA talks

Among digital services, one of the contentious issues on the table is India's data localisation norms - cross-border flow of data - that have been a concern for American companies

India's growth story intact despite US tariff threat, says Piyush Goyal

Since taking over as the US President over two months ago, Trump has been implementing protectionist policies in an attempt to Make America Great Again

India, Japan likely to sign pact on sharing emission-reduction credits

Once finalised, carbon credits will be tracked through a registry, with joint committees managing projects and certifying credits issued based on reports