Much of the focus last week was on elevated long-end bond yields across the globe as investors fretted about the state of various countries' finances from Britain and France to Japan
The dollar and bonds were little moved ahead of a busy week for data which includes surveys of manufacturing and services, and a range of labour numbers culminating in the August payrolls report
Considering the US GDP data, weekly job report, hot PCE report and calm in the wider markets despite tariffs, gold is susceptible to further decline in the near-term, says Praveen Singh of Mirae Asset
Stock markets are in for an event-heavy week ahead with a raft of Q1 earnings from blue-chips, the US Fed interest rate decision and foreign investors trading activity driving investors' sentiment, analysts said. Macroeconomic data announcements, monthly auto sales numbers and global market trends would also guide movement in the domestic equities, they said. Markets would also keep a track on developments related to the August 1 trade deal deadline and geopolitical tensions between Thailand and Cambodia. August 1 marks the end of the suspension period of Trump tariffs imposed on dozens of countries, including India. "The start of the new month will bring attention to key economic data, including Industrial Production (IIP) and HSBC Manufacturing PMI on August 1. Additionally, monthly auto sales figures will be closely monitored. The scheduled expiry of the July derivatives contracts may add further volatility to the markets," Ajit Mishra SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.
Sensex Today | Stock Market close, Wednesday, July 2, 2025: In the broader markets, the Nifty Midcap100 and Nifty Smallcap100 indices settled down by 0.14 per cent and 0.41 per cent, respectively
Citigroup and Wells Fargo also expect the Fed to cut rates by 75 basis points in 2025, while UBS Global Research forecasts 100 basis points of reduction
Trump has unleashed a pressure campaign on the central bank to cut rates, repeatedly assailing Powell and arguing the Fed's policies are keeping government borrowing costs too high
The FTSE 100 barely reacted, trading 0.2 per cent lower on the day, roughly where it had been prior to the BoE decision, while two-year gilt yields fell to session lows at 3.886 per cent
The Fed last September did reduce rates by a half of a percentage point, after a faster-than-expected decline in inflation and a marked slowdown in the labor market
Trump named Powell as the Fed chair in 2018, during his first term in the White House, and Democratic President Joe Biden appointed Powell to a second four-year term in 2022
The Fed's policy rate has been unchanged since December as officials struggle to estimate the impact of President Donald Trump's import tariffs
The US Fed interest rate decision, trading activity of foreign investors and quarterly earnings from corporates would largely drive the momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Escalating tensions between India and Pakistan over the Pahalgam terror attack will also remain on investors' radar, they added. Optimism over a potential trade agreement with the US and sustained FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) inflows helped markets end the last week on a positive note. But market experts said that due to the fragile global environment amid geopolitical tensions and the ongoing tariff war, investors are not betting big on equities. Among macroeconomic data announcements this week, HSBC services PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) would be watched by investors. "This week is crucial, packed with key domestic and global triggers. Developments regarding tariff and geopolitical tensions with Pakistan will remain on the radar. On the macroeconomic front, investors would be eye
Donald Trump has long pressured the Fed Chair to cut interest rates, especially after the administration imposed global tariffs on trade partners
Powell said it was not the Fed's role to comment on the Trump administration's policies but rather to react to how they might affect an economy that he and his colleagues made comment about
Trump ultimately prevailed in the election and has mused in the past about seeking to exert more influence over the central bank, which traditionally maintains independence from the White House
Fed's Powell downplayed simmering concerns about a slowdown but acknowledged tariff uncertainty was a factor and already contributing to goods inflation
The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against the yen, sterling and other peers, rose to as high as 108.02. It was last up 0.102% at 107.77
The unemployment rate is forecast at 4.1 per cent amid historically low layoffs, with wages rising solidly
Tariffs on China are set to begin on Tuesday, and Trump has signaled he will impose duties on other trading partners as well
Inflation is nearly contained, but the Fed sees enough uncertainty and risk on the horizon that it has moved to the sidelines, at least for now