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Business Standard / New Delhi April 7, 2008

While most reckon the Indian economy will grow at around 8 per cent in 2008-09, there could be a few slips. Though there is a large global component to the worst inflation India has had in 40 months, the RBI may respond by tightening liquidity which will further hurt growth. As it is, industrial growth has slowed and the contraction in funds raised locally and abroad is discernible. What is heartening, however, is the continued strength of order books and capital spending. M&As and private equity deals don’t show any great signs of a slowdown either. The Pay Commission award is likely to add significantly to local demand as well. Internationally, the chances of a longer US recession look more likely as the financial crisis has a long way to play out — recapitalisation levels of banks are still just half the total sub-prime losses and that estimate also looks as if it could rise further. Despite the Fed’s actions, liquidity is very poor and, curiously, inflation expectations remain high despite global growth slowing.

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