StatsGuru: 28-April-2014

Decoding the numbers behind the dragon's slowdown

Click on image

Concern is beginning to grow about China's slowdown. It is not yet visible in the country's GDP growth rate, which has declined only marginally, as Table 1 shows. But a lack of confidence is being noted, in particular in China's powerful manufacturing sector. The Purchasing Manager's Index for manufacturing, as Table 2 shows, has distinctly declined lately. While the Shanghai stock market, although volatile, has not yet shown a sharp descent - according to Table 3 - the Chinese currency, as Table 4 shows, has begun to weaken against the dollar.

Given the doubt attached to China's official GDP figures, other indicators are frequently used to judge the health of the Chinese economy.

In many, growth has taken a visible dive. Table 5 shows, for example, that both exports and imports are now showing negative year-on-year growth. Retail growth, although positive, has also shown a clear decline, as Table 6 reveals.

A broad secular increase in the growth of electricity output has sharply reversed of late, as shown in Table 7. And year-on-year growth in fixed assets investment, the engine of the Chinese economy, has also declined, as Table 8 demonstrates. The only positive: Tax revenue continues to grow, as Table 9 reveals, so the Chinese government is not without resources to fight the slowdown.