The rupee's climb

COMMODITY WATCH

Hemingway said, "There are only three sports "� bullfighting, motor racing, and mountaineering. Mountaineering we feel is also an inspiration for financial news. The only time an asset catches attention is when it is at the top of a mountain.

Like for example the seven-year top the rupee crossed recently. But as they say, nobody believes in the mountaineer till he climbs it. His motivation, determination, his dreams or his inner waves are not important till the time he proves it.

This is what happened to the rupee, and making it a star makes sense now. But it did not make sense betting on the national currency as it moved sideways starting July 2003 or when it began the final ascent in June 2006. The news is late yet again, this time it took the news nine months to arrive.

On December 4, 2006, this column had said, "The currency is headed down to 43 and lower, despite what the RBI does, despite macroeconomic conditions, despite the seasoned trader. This is our multi-month forecast."

The long term trend remains near Rs 40 vs the dollar. We will keep you posted on the asset moves before the mountaineer starts climbing.

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