Turmeric prices likely to drop on fresh arrivals

New supplies expected by mid-Jan.

With new crop to start pouring in by mid-January, the turmeric market is headed for a downturn. Market sources said downward pressure on prices would be felt after April "� the time till which the market would remain steady.

At present, the market is maintaining a support level at over Rs 1,900 a quintal, thanks to the demand from the northern region on account of a chilling winter in that part of the country.

In the Nizamabad spot market, turmeric was hovering around Rs 1,950 a quintal. The futures prices for April delivery on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange closed at Rs 2,034, up 0.79 per cent.

"At present, prices are in the Rs 1,800-2,500 a quintal range," said Sangli-based trader Sharad Shah. "Demand is steady in the market, and prices may go up a bit. But once the new crop comes and arrivals gain momentum prices will decline," he added.

The country is expecting a total production of around 52-55 lakh bags (75 kg each) this season, 17 per cent up from 47 lakh bags last year. The carry-forward stock will contribute another 5-6 lakh bags, making a total availability of 60 lakh bags.

The country's second-largest turmeric producer Tamil Nadu reported some rains-inflicted crop damage, but it is not likely to affect the overall estimated crop production.

Normally, the export demand firms up after Diwali. However, this time, the country did not see good demand because of good crop in China.

Generally, the demand remains strong till May and then declines. During the period (by the end of the harvesting period) almost half of production is absorbed by the market. After this, demand subdues and so do prices. According to traders, prices may touch the Rs 1,600 a quintal level this year.

"Crop has already started arriving in some markets, for example in Erode and Nizamabad. But it is of poor quality as farmers did an early harvesting on hopes of realising higher prices," said Sandip Das, analyst with Agriwatch Commodities.

Although the new crop would hit the market in a fortnight from now, good quality turmeric would be available only by the month-end or by the beginning of February, he added.

Of the country's total yearly turmeric production of about 55 lakh bags, Andhra Pradesh contributes the largest quantum at around 25 lakh bags, while Tamil Nadu comes next with 18-20 lakh bags.

Maharashtra produces 4-5 lakh bags. Domestic consumption makes up 90 per cent of the country's total output. The rest is exported mainly to the sub-continent, the Gulf countries and South Africa.