Democratic dividends

Condoleeza Rice, the new US secretary of state, was absolutely right in a speech in Paris on Tuesday to point to some dramatic international developments (all positive) in the past month.

Two countries in eastern Europe moved decisively towards democracy, Iraq has held its elections and there is a fresh handshake between Israel and Palestine.

For an American President who has been pilloried for his policies in both Iraq and Palestine, this presents a rare chance to make up for past mistakes, and to do the things necessary from now on to ensure that things don't fall over the cliff.

The risks in Iraq remain great, because the electoral outcome is not going to be quite as convenient as the one in Afghanistan.

Hamid Karzai, whom the Americans had installed in Kabul, won a popular mandate and the fears of Afghanistan collapsing in the face of a fresh Taliban onslaught and renewed warlordism have receded.

In Iraq, though, Mr Karzai's equivalent as America's favoured candidate seems unlikely to emerge as the country's preferred choice. Instead, the Shia majority may have voted to hand over de facto power to Islamist forces who will not play the game as the US wants.

This could mean complications in terms of the continued role of the US forces in the country, not to speak of tensions with the Sunni minority (who did not vote in large numbers) as well as the Kurds, who have their aspirations for nationhood.

It will take some deft footwork to keep all balls in play while working towards the drafting of a new constitution for the country, and transition thereafter to a fully functioning, modern democracy.

This preferred outcome is by no means guaranteed, nor is it clear that the US knows how to deal with electoral outcomes that are not to its liking, or indeed how to respond if the new constitution is given Islamist elements as essential features.

But after the scandals at Abu Ghraib and elsewhere, and bungling that has led to large-scale Iraqi suffering, the US deserves some credit for having brought Iraq to the stage where it can think in terms of positive outcomes.

The Palestine situation has changed dramatically for the better, but such ceasefires and handshakes have proved all too shortlived in the past and resulted in even more bitterness.

The new Palestine leadership is untested, and Ariel Sharon's track record does not encourage too much hope. Nor is it clear that the Bush administration is willing to invest a great deal in ensuring that the oldest conflict in West Asia is finally resolved.

Indeed, realism would suggest that it is better to work initially towards agreements on confidence-building measures and some relief for beleaguered and harassed Palestinians, so that the potential for fresh conflict gets minimised.