Story in numbers: Demonetisation and elections

All parties have interpreted the results of the by-elections to four Lok Sabha and eight Assembly constituencies as a vote on demonetisation. Leaders from the Trinamool Congress (TMC) cite the higher margins in both Lok Sabha and Assembly elections as evidence to show the people have spoken – and have rejected the National Democratic Alliance(NDA)/Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for foisting inconvenience on the people by demonetising high-value currency notes.

On the other hand, the BJP has not exactly been rejected. In Tripura, it has turfed out the Congress as the principal opposition: The Congress vote share has dropped from a little more than 40 per cent to a meagre two per cent. The sitting MLA in Barjala was from the Congress but the party got only three per cent votes against the CPI (M)’s 45 per cent and BJP’s 35 per cent.  

 

But, the opposite is true in Tamil Nadu. Despite somewhat muted opposition initially to demonetisation, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has won all three by-elections, wresting one seat from its rival, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). In all cases, the margins of victory have gone up. Interestingly, in two of the three seats, (Aravakurichi and Thanjavur), the polls were deferred in May, 2016, for the first time in the history of the country, after evidence was found of massive corruption. The very candidates who faced the allegations have won with handsome margins.