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China December export growth seen cooling again, import pace seen faster: Reuters poll

Reuters  |  BEIJING 

(Reuters) - China's December export growth likely cooled for a second month as global demand eased and front-loading of U.S.-bound cargoes faded, which could give more incentive to defuse trade tensions with the

December exports likely rose 3.0 percent from a year earlier, according to the median forecast of 27 economists in a poll. That compares with November's 5.4 percent increase and would be the weakest performance since March's 3 percent contraction.

Annual import growth likely ticked up slightly to 5.4 percent, from 3.0 percent in November, creating the possibility would take more measures to shore up slackening domestic demand this year.

China's overall trade surplus is seen to have climbed to $50.73 billion in December, from $44.71 billion the previous month, according to the poll.

Chinese exports were resilient for much of 2018 as shippers rushed out goods to beat imposition of higher U.S. tariffs. But downbeat factory output data in recent months suggests the trade war with the has taken a toll on economic growth while the impact of higher infrastructure spending has yet to be felt.

Imports at are levelling off due to high warehouse inventories after retailers' months-long rush to bring in Chinese merchandise before higher tariffs hit, according to a U.S.


imposed import tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods last year and threatened further pressure Beijing to change its practices on issues ranging from industrial subsidies to intellectual property. retaliated with tariffs of its own.

On Dec. 1, U.S. and Chinese agreed to a 90-day truce delaying a planned U.S. tariff hike on Jan. 1 as officials negotiate a trade deal.

This week, a U.S. delegation had three days of meetings with Chinese counterparts in Beijing on their trade disputes.

On Thursday, said Beijing and made progress during the talks over structural issues such as and intellectual property rights

Zhang Yu, at in Guiyang, said in a note on Monday that agricultural and from the U.S. "may have propped up import growth for last month, but slowing domestic demand and falling commodity prices are set to drag on the overall import value."

(Reporting by and Ryan Woo; Editing by Richard Borsuk)

(This story has not been edited by Business Standard staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

First Published: Thu, January 10 2019. 14:00 IST