UK bans cigarette sales for future generations: Can India replicate?

UK's generational tobacco ban raises questions on whether India can replicate similar anti-smoking measures amid structural, legal, and enforcement challenges

Last week, the British Parliament passed the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, one of the toughest anti-smoking measures globally, aimed at creating a “smoke-free generation”.

 

The Bill proposes a rolling ban under which individuals born after December 31, 2008 will never be legally allowed to purchase cigarettes. Instead of a fixed legal age, the minimum age for buying tobacco will rise each year.

 

The move raises a key question: Can India replicate a similar model to protect future generations from tobacco addiction? More specifically, is it possible to curb the deep-rooted presence of tobacco in a country where the industry remains a significant revenue source?

 

India’s tobacco market: Scale, structure, and realities

Any comparison with the UK quickly runs into several structural differences, the primary being India’s fragmented tobacco consumption pattern. According to government survey data and the World Health Organisation, India is the world’s second-largest tobacco consumer, but cigarettes account for only around 10–12 per cent of total use. Products like bidis and pan masala dominate consumption.

 

India’s long-term trend further complicates the picture. While tobacco use has declined over time, with prevalence falling from 34.6 per cent in 2009–10 to 28.6 per cent in 2016–17, production has remained broadly stable, as shown in the chart below.

(Chart: Data compiled and visualised by Akshita Singh)

 

This divergence shows that policy measures have altered consumption patterns rather than eliminated demand, with users shifting across product categories and price segments.

 

Industry data and company disclosures show that ITC Limited commands nearly 75–80 per cent of the organised cigarette market, followed by Godfrey Phillips India and VST Industries.

 

While cigarette volumes have remained largely stable, value growth has been supported by premiumisation trends. At the same time, India imposes some of the highest cigarette taxes globally, with total tax incidence often exceeding 50–60 per cent of the maximum retail price.

 

Would a generational ban work in India?

 

Experts say the idea of a lifetime smoking ban, while compelling on paper, runs into structural constraints

 

“A UK-style generational ban is legally conceivable in India, but its viability depends on enforcement capacity,” said Oommen C Kurian, senior fellow, Health Initiative, Observer Research Foundation (ORF). “India already prohibits sale of tobacco to minors, yet youth access remains a concern… this underlines the limits of announcing ambitious prohibitions without a credible retail-enforcement architecture."

 

That enforcement gap is not new. Even existing restrictions struggle on the ground, said Shashi Mathews, partner at CMS INDUSLAW’s Tax Practise Group. “Despite the statutory prohibition, significant implementation gaps persist… a very small percentage of vendors undertake age verification,” he said, adding that a lifetime ban would require “robust enforcement mechanisms".

 

More fundamentally, experts warn that targeting cigarettes alone may not address India’s tobacco reality.

 

“Cigarettes are only one part of the problem… bidis and smokeless tobacco contribute greatly to the disease burden,” Kurian said as he cautioned that such a ban could “push consumption underground" towards cheaper and less regulated products.

 

Echoing this, Prof PG Babu, economist and vice-chancellor at Vidyashilp University in Bengaluru, said: “It will only shift consumption pattern and will not reduce the overall tobacco consumption.”

 

India’s current legal framework on tobacco

 

India’s regulatory approach is anchored in the Cigarettes and Other Tobacco Products Act (COTPA), which focuses on restricting access rather than prohibition.

 

The law bans sales to minors, restricts advertising, mandates health warnings, and limits sales near schools. These are supported by high taxation, graphic warnings, and public smoking restrictions.

 

From a legal standpoint, a generational ban may not be entirely out of reach, but it comes with caveats.

 

“A UK-style generational smoking ban could be practically feasible… the existing framework already demonstrates incremental prohibition,” said Mathews. However, he warned that such steps have historically led to illicit trade, enforcement gaps, and protests from tobacco farmers due to economic disruption.

 

From a constitutional lens, Varun Katiyar, advocate at Supreme Court of India, added that any such restriction would likely face scrutiny. “While public health is a legitimate ground, the Indian judiciary traditionally demands proportionality,” he said.

 

Industry impact: Gradual shift, not immediate shock

 

According to the Tobacco Institute of India, the industry generates an average revenue of over ₹76,000 crore annually and provides livelihood to 45.7 million people.

 

If implemented, a generational ban would probably reshape the industry, but slowly.

 

“A phased generational ban would not result in an immediate collapse of revenues, rather it would gradually erode the tax stream over decades,” Katiyar said, adding that organised players would be forced to pivot or diversify.

 

Babu drew parallels with past policy experiments: “If the liquor ban experience is any guidance, a generational ban of tobacco is likely to go the same way,” he said, adding that demand could simply move underground.

 

Can India replicate the UK model?

 

India could, in theory, introduce a generational smoking ban, but replication is far from straightforward, the experts believe.

 

Kurian said any "serious endgame policy" has to be product-neutral and include all tobacco products, a far more complex task in India’s regulatory system.

 

For now, experts broadly agree that more incremental tools may be more effective.

 

“It is best to use price as a tool and also public space restrictions,” Babu said, while Mathews pointed to taxation and tighter access controls as more practical levers.