Q3FY26 Aviation Preview: Elara expects profit to decline on demand worries

Domestic airfares declined 1 per cent on year in Q3FY26, which indicated demand-side concern, Elara Capital said

InterGlobe Aviation Limited may report a decline in net profit, while SpiceJet could post an increased loss, in their respective results for the third quarter of the financial year 2026 (Q3FY26). A decline in airfares amid demand  concern might have impacted airlines' earnings during the quarter, Elara Capital said.   The airfare for the entire aviation industry declined 1 per cent on year in the third quarter of the current financial year (Q3FY26), according to Elara Capital. It improved 5 per cent in October, but declined 3 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively, in November and December.  

The domestic air traffic growth fell to 3 per cent Y–o–Y in the third quarter (Q3FY26) compared to 9 per cent growth recorded  a year ago (Q3FY25). The shrinking fleet size of non-IndiGo carriers and flight disruption are behind the deceleration of the growth, according to the brokerage.    

IndiGo Q3FY26 results preview

 

IndiGo saw the international airfares decreasing 20 per cent sequentially in the December quarter (Q3FY26) because of seasonality. However, an equal sequential increase in domestic airfares may offset the impact, as per the brokerage. InterGlobe Aviation may continue to benefit from Pratt & Whitney-fitted engine aircraft, which will decrease the aeroplane-leasing cost. The airline also received delivery of 20 aircraft from Boeing and Airbus during this period. 

 

Elara Capital expects IndiGo to report a 45.7 per cent Y-o-Y decline in adjusted net profit in the third quarter (Q3FY26). The net profit will likely be at ₹2,121.8 crore versus ₹3,905.2 crore in the corresponding period of the previous financial year.  

IndiGo's Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) fell 17.9 per cent on year to ₹5,447.1 crore from ₹6,635 crore. The airline’s operating profit might have declined because of lower airfare and higher operational cost, the brokerage said. 

In December 2025, Elara Capital slashed IndiGo's  Earnings before Interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) estimates by 14 per cent for the current financial year, and 12 and 7 per cent, respectively, for the financial years 2027 and 2028.    Lower available seat kilometers, high crew cost, and one-off disruption-related efficiency could pressure IndiGo's operating profit going forward, Elara had said. 

The passenger load factor is expected to be at 86 per cent during the December quarter (Q3FY26) compared to 87 per cent in the preceding  quarter. Elara Capital estimates the forex loss to be at ₹1,200 crore.  

Meanwhile, revenue may increase 3 per cent to ₹22,783.8 crore from ₹22,110.7 crore in the third quarter (Q3FY26), the brokerage said. 

 

SpiceJet Q3FY26 results preview 

SpiceJet may report ₹1,420 crore net loss in the December quarter compared to ₹130.6 crore in the corresponding period of the previous financial year, Elara Capital said.  

Meanwhile, the airline will likely see its Earnings bInterest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) to be at ₹536 crore compared to ₹828 crore loss reported in the corresponding period of the financial year, according to the brokerage.       ======

 

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