India is expected to see a normal monsoon this year with a long-period average (LPA) of 96 per cent between June and September, says IMD
Maharashtra deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis on Monday said the India Meteorological Department is going to release its final report on the south-west monsoon forecast later this month and that will reveal if the El Nino weather pattern will cast a shadow on the June-September rains, leading to deficient precipitation. Speaking to reporters at Amravati in the Vidarbha region, he said the state government has anyway started preparations to tackle situation arising of a possible shortfall in monsoon rains. India is likely to experience below-normal monsoon rainfall this year, with a 20 per cent chance of drought due to the end of La Nina conditions and the potential for El Nino to take hold, private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said earlier in the day. The private forecaster has predicted the northern and central parts of the country may see a rain deficit, with Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra expected to witness inadequate showers during the core monsoon months
Private weather forecaster warns about the effect of El Nino phenomenon
Skymet said that there is a 0% chance of excess rainfall in the upcoming monsoon season
Reservoir levels lower than last year but higher than 10-yr average; ample elbow room in grain storage for now
The El Nino phenomenon, which occurs normally after every three to five years, may impact the weather in India this year, thus affecting the agriculture sector
The data related to monsoon and crop production for the decade suggest that despite uneven monsoon rains over the years, Indian agricultural output has remained largely immune to rainfall patterns
A warming El Nino event may develop in the coming months , according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The El Nino event may develop after three consecutive years of an unusually stubborn and protracted La Nina, which influenced temperature and rainfall patterns in different parts of the world, WMO said in a statement. However, while the return of El Nino is considered likely this will be proceeded by a period of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions, with 90 per cent probability, during March-May, the statement said. The likelihood of ENSO neutral conditions continuing beyond May decreases slightly but remains high, with 80 per cent likelihood in April-June and 60 per cent in May-July, based on the model predictions and assessment from experts involved in producing the Update, it said. The chances of El Nino developing, while low in the first half of the year, 15 per cent in April-June, gradually increases to 35 per cent in May-July
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IMD predicts above-normal temperatures this year
Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has asked officials to prepare a comprehensive mitigation plan due to the possibility of drought this year, an official said on Thursday. The official said Fadnavis cited media reports of the United States government's weather agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicating a possibility of 'El Nino' condition developing late summer. As per weather experts, an 'El Nino' condition is when surface water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than average and the east winds get weaker, bringing about extremes that include flooding or drought. "There is likelihood of a drought situation this year and the government needs to be well prepared to ensure people's hardship is minimised," the official said. The directives came at the cabinet meeting earlier this week, he added.
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Rain patterns in India are also expected to get altered with the return of El Niño in 2023
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"The first half of the 2022 monsoon season is expected to fare better than the latter. Monsoon is likely to make a decent start during the onset month of June," Skymet said.
India's southwest monsoon this year is expected to be 'normal' at 100 per cent of the long period average
The latest India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts show that sea surface temperatures might further cool, enhancing the probability of La Niña after July
He said that IMD has impact-based forecast in all districts now
A strong El Nino could have an adverse impact on India's southwest monsoon that starts from June as almost 80% of El Nino years have seen 'below normal' rains
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