DSP's Message Amid Rupee Panic: This May Be the Time to Buy, Not Run
A potential valuation correction, artificial intelligence trade (AI) trade unwinding and the Strait of Hormuz opening for business, the note said, could stem these outflows
The urgency has grown after the rupee slumped to a record low of nearly 97 per dollar this week, driving up import costs and further eroding investors' confidence
India's rupee has fallen nearly 6 per cent since the Iran war began late in February and slumped to a record low of nearly 96.96 per dollar on Thursday
The rupee rose 18 paise to 96.18 against the US dollar in early trade on Friday, on slight cooling in crude oil prices, tentative signs of easing geopolitical tensions, and active RBI intervention in the market. Forex traders said markets found some comfort after comments from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hinted that diplomatic talks linked to the Iran situation were moving in a constructive direction. Although Rubio warned that he does not want to be "overly optimistic," the comments were enough to calm markets temporarily. As a result, Brent crude oil cooled near the USD 104 mark, reducing immediate pressure on the rupee, traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 96.30 against the US dollar, then touched 96.18 in early trade, up 18 paise from its previous close. On Thursday, the rupee rebounded 50 paise from its all-time closing low to settle at 96.36 against the US dollar. "Another major reason behind the rupee's recovery is growing confi
The rupee recovered 41 paise from its all-time closing low to 96.45 against US dollar in early trade on Thursday, after US President Donald Trump indicated that negotiations with Iran were entering the final stages. Investors are still gauging the geopolitical risk and oil price sensitivity in the background with any flare-up in the Middle East tensions or spikes in crude, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 96.25 against the US dollar, then touched 96.45 in early trade, up 41 paise from its all-time lifetime low of 96.86 against the US dollar on Wednesday. On Wednesday, the rupee made a new low of 96.95 and later closed at 96.86 which was also a new closing low as demand for dollars continued with dollar index higher and crude oil prices remaining on the higher side near to USD 110 during the day. "From a technical perspective, the 97.00 zone is expected to act as an immediate resistance area for USDINR, while support may emerge around
The next scheduled monetary policy decision is on June 5, although the RBI has previously made an out-of-cycle adjustment in May 2022
The 30-year US bond yield hit the highest level since 2007 on inflation concerns
The rupee was already under pressure before the West Asia conflict began, weighed down by widening external balances and foreign fund outflows
The rupee depreciated 20 paise to an all-time low of 96.90 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday weighed down by a strong dollar and elevated crude oil prices amid simmering Iran-US tensions. Forex traders said the outflow by FIIs and decline in equity benchmark indices also pressured the rupee. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 96.89 against the US dollar, then slipped further to 96.90, registering a fall of 20 paise from its previous close. On Tuesday, the Indian rupee slumped for the eighth consecutive session and ended 50 paise down at its record low of 96.70 against the US dollar. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 99.262, up 0.01 per cent. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading down 0.35 per cent USD 110.59 per barrel in futures trade. On the domestic equity market front, Sensex tanked 517.11 points to 74,667.51 in early trade while Nifty .
The rupee weakened to a fresh low against the dollar amid elevated crude oil prices, higher US Treasury yields, and continued foreign fund outflows
The rupee opened with a negative bias amid a strong dollar and rising US treasury yields and depreciated 18 paise to 96.38 against the US dollar as market sentiments continue to dampen amid simmering tensions between the US and Iran. Forex traders said rupee remains vulnerable to the rise in crude oil prices as also the closure of the Strait of Hormuz hampering its exports and imports to the Gulf countries. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 96.38 against the US dollar, registering a fall of 18 paise from its previous close. On Monday, the Indian rupee weakened further and closed at a record low of 96.20 against the US dollar. "The market's biggest challenge right now is not just direction -- it's confidence. Until there is visible cooling in global tensions and stability in foreign flows, the rupee may continue trading under pressure with volatility staying elevated," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Pabari further added that technically, 94.8095.
The rupee weakened to a fresh low and bond yields climbed sharply as rising crude oil prices and higher US Treasury yields rattled financial markets
At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 96.19, then fell further to 96.25 against the US dollar, registering a fall of 44 paise from its previous close
SBI report says another ₹2 depreciation wipe out oil co's gain; Bond yields harden after fuel price hike
The rupee opened on a weaker note and fell 30 paise to 95.94 on Friday after hitting new lows over three straight sessions, as elevated crude oil prices, a strong dollar, and concerns over the West Asia crisis weighed on investor sentiment. Forex traders said USDINR is under pressure and hovering very close to the 96 mark as dollar buying continues amid upside in oil prices. Moreover, the Summit between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi did not yield any fruitful results, particularly on the US-Iran front, denting investor sentiments further. The USD/INR pair, which had slumped to 95.96 against the American currency on Thursday, recovered sharply after reports surfaced that India is considering a major cut in taxes paid by foreign investors on Indian bonds. On Friday, the government hiked the petrol and diesel prices by Rs 3 per liter in the latest move to curb the demand of these fuels. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.86, then fell furth
Petrol and diesel prices were raised by ₹3 per litre as Brent crude stayed above $105 per barrel. Here's how rising fuel prices could impact inflation and the rupee
If crude prices remain elevated for an extended period, trade and CAD will further widen, impacting the rupee more. The rupee might depreciate to 100, and trigger more FPI outflows.
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