El Niño seen arriving too late to hurt monsoon

Six climate models suggest thresholds may be reached by July

India’s monsoon may escape the effects of a possible El Niño event that can bring dry weather to the world’s top cotton grower and second-biggest wheat and sugar producer.

“Mostly it may not have any impact on rains because the El Niño probably won’t develop until later this year,” said D S Pai, head of the long-range forecast division of India Meteorological Department. “As of now it’s not indicating. There will be clarity when more information is available in April and May.”

Forecasters globally have been increasing odds that El Niño will develop this year as temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise.